Abstract—The paper presents a quantitative analysis of the responses of forest ecosystems located in various sectors of the Pacific Ocean megaecotone in northern Eurasia to climate changes forecasted for the next 50–200 years with E GISS and HadCM3 global prediction models. The produced environmental scenarios were compared with similar predictions for intracontinental regions of eastern Europe. Two possible predictive climatic trends were examined: cold–arid and thermoarid. The Mendeleev insular arc ecoregion (Kunashir Island) features an exceptionally high rate of functional absorption of habitat areas of almost all basic plant communities by extrazonal objects; this escalates the climatogenic transformation of the biogeocoenologic structure of insular arc geo(eco)systems to the regional scale. In the marginally continental, low-mountain, lower part of the Amur River basin, buffer forest communities are actively developing amid similar, although less intense, phytocoenologic transformations.

中文翻译：

---

全球气候变化对西北太平洋北方森林的影响。景观-环境预后

摘要—本文使用E GISS和HadCM3全球预测模型，对位于欧亚大陆北部太平洋超大石酮各部门的森林生态系统对未来50-200年预测的气候变化的响应进行了定量分析。将产生的环境情景与东欧大陆内部区域的类似预测进行了比较。研究了两种可能的预测气候趋势：冷干旱和热干旱。门捷列夫岛弧形生态区（库纳希尔岛）的功能外带使几乎所有基本植物群落的栖息地的功能吸收率极高。这将岛状弧形地球（生态）系统的生物地理学结构的气候成因升级升级到区域规模。在大陆边缘的低山区，