Affordable housing with fair and transparent land-allocation measures is a challenge for many countries. The Sultanate of Oman solves this issue by means of land-allocation lotteries in which male and female citizens can participate in order to win a parcel of a new housing area. Besides supporting those in financial need the lottery aims to mix the separate tribes of Oman and thus contribute to the nation building of a modern society. In an earlier work, we showed that there must be severe doubts about the economic support aspect as it seems that the current lottery, without additional measures, fuels private land speculation, see Heim et al. (Homo Oecon 35:1–30, 2018). This article studies the emergent phenomenon of clan formation within the specific land-allocation system of Oman with a new mathematical and computational approach of agent-based modelling. This model is used to base the criticism to the system on scientific evidence. Both the method (clan formation exemplified as agent-based model) and findings (simulated agents and real-world behaviour) advance the discussion on how to mitigate some of the negative effects associated with the current land allocation system. To do so, we discuss the current state and criticism around this aspect of urbanisation in Oman. We study the spatial mixing of the tribes and the possibility of clan formation in modern Omani settlements in particular Muscat Capital Area. We see emergent phenomena arising from the agent-based model that matches real world behaviour leading to negative effects such as partial and incomplete land development, tribal clustering and real-estate market distortion. The agent-based model is used to discuss alternative scenarios under which tribal clan formation is used to generate a fairer and more complete settlement process in Oman to ensure the intended outcomes of Oman’s land-allocation lottery system.

中文翻译：

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阿曼现代住宅开发中的土地分配和宗族形成

具有公平和透明的土地分配措施的经济适用房是许多国家面临的挑战。阿曼苏丹国通过土地分配彩票解决了这个问题，男性和女性公民都可以参加，以赢得一块新的住房区。除了支持那些有经济需要的人之外，彩票旨在混合阿曼的不同部落，从而为现代社会的国家建设做出贡献。在早期的工作中，我们表明必须对经济支持方面存在严重怀疑，因为目前的彩票似乎在没有额外措施的情况下会助长私人土地投机，参见 Heim 等人。（Homo Oecon 35：1-30，2018 年）。本文采用基于代理的建模的新数学和计算方法研究了阿曼特定土地分配系统内出现的氏族形成现象。该模型用于根据科学证据对系统进行批评。方法（以基于代理的模型为例的氏族形成）和发现（模拟代理和现实世界的行为）都推动了关于如何减轻与当前土地分配系统相关的一些负面影响的讨论。为此，我们讨论了围绕阿曼城市化这一方面的现状和批评。我们研究部落的空间混合以及现代阿曼定居点，特别是马斯喀特首都地区氏族形成的可能性。我们看到基于代理的模型产生的紧急现象与现实世界的行为相匹配，导致负面影响，如部分和不完整的土地开发、部落聚集和房地产市场扭曲。基于代理的模型用于讨论替代方案，在这些方案下，部落氏族形成用于在阿曼产生更公平和更完整的定居过程，以确保阿曼土地分配彩票系统的预期结果。