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Long-period Variations in Extreme Temperature Statistics in Russia as Linked to the Changes in Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology ( IF 0.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-07 , DOI: 10.3103/s106837391912001x
M. Yu. Bardin , T. V. Platova

Some aspects of long-term variability of temperature extremes on the territory of Russia are considered using average daily surface air temperature data from 367 weather stations over the period of 1960-2016. The number of days with extremely high summer temperature has increased monotonously (with strong peaks in some years) in the European part of Russia since the 1980s; in the Asian part of Russia this growth stopped in the early 2000s. The number of cold extremes has decreased. Changes in winter mainly agree with the general warming, but in the Asian part of Russia the warming trend is superimposed by about 40-year oscillations resembling variations in the leading atmospheric circulation modes: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern. The statistics of indices of extremes in the opposite phases of the modes revealed a strong response in winter, which explains qualitatively the features of long-term variations in temperature extremes. A difference in composites between the positive and negative NAO phases is mostly negative for cold extremes and positive for warm ones. The response to the Scandinavian mode is opposite. In summer, the response is generally weak, but in the west of the European part of Russia the heat wave duration is strongly linked to variations in the Scandinavian pattern.

中文翻译:

俄罗斯极端温度统计数据的长期变化,与大规模大气环流和全球变暖的变化有关

使用1960-2016年期间367个气象站的每日平均地面气温数据,考虑了俄罗斯境内极端温度的长期变化的某些方面。自1980年代以来,俄罗斯欧洲部分地区夏季气温极高的天数单调增加(某些年份达到峰值)。在俄罗斯的亚洲地区,这种增长在2000年代初就停止了。极端天气的数量有所减少。冬季的变化主要与总体变暖相吻合,但在俄罗斯的亚洲部分,变暖趋势被大约40年的振荡所叠加,类似于主要的大气环流模式的变化:北大西洋涛动(NAO)和斯堪的纳维亚模式。模式相反阶段的极端指数统计表明,冬季有强烈的反应,从质上解释了温度极端长期变化的特征。NAO正相和负相之间复合材料的差异对于寒冷的极端情况大多数是负面的,对于温暖的极端情况则是正面的。对斯堪的纳维亚模式的反应则相反。在夏季,反应通常较弱,但是在俄罗斯欧洲部分的西部,热浪的持续时间与斯堪的纳维亚模式的变化密切相关。对斯堪的纳维亚模式的反应则相反。在夏季,反应通常较弱,但是在俄罗斯欧洲部分的西部,热浪的持续时间与斯堪的纳维亚模式的变化密切相关。对斯堪的纳维亚模式的反应则相反。在夏季,反应通常较弱,但是在俄罗斯欧洲部分的西部,热浪的持续时间与斯堪的纳维亚模式的变化密切相关。
更新日期:2020-01-07
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