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The Response of Subtropical Highs to Climate Change
Current Climate Change Reports ( IF 9.5 ) Pub Date : 2018-09-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s40641-018-0114-1
Annalisa Cherchi , Tercio Ambrizzi , Swadhin Behera , Ana Carolina Vasques Freitas , Yushi Morioka , Tianjun Zhou

Purpose of Review

Subtropical highs are an important component of the climate system with clear implications on the local climate regimes of the subtropical regions. In a climate change perspective, understanding and predicting subtropical highs and related climate is crucial to local societies for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. We review the current understanding of the subtropical highs in the framework of climate change.

Recent Findings

Projected changes of subtropical highs are not uniform. Intensification, weakening, and shifts may largely differ in the two hemispheres but may also change across different ocean basins. For some regions, large inter-model spread representation of subtropical highs and related dynamics is largely responsible for the uncertainties in the projections. The understanding and evaluation of the projected changes may also depend on the metrics considered and may require investigations separating thermodynamical and dynamical processes.

Summary

The dynamics of subtropical highs has a well-established theoretical background but the understanding of its variability and change is still affected by large uncertainties. Climate model systematic errors, low-frequency chaotic variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, and sensitivity to climate forcing are all sources of uncertainty that reduce the confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, including the subtropical highs. Compensating signals, coming from a tug-of-war between components associated with direct carbon dioxide radiative forcing and indirect sea surface temperature warming, impose limits that must be considered.


中文翻译:

亚热带高压对气候变化的响应

审查目的

亚热带高压是气候系统的重要组成部分,对亚热带地区的当地气候体制有着明显的影响。从气候变化的角度来看,了解和预测亚热带高压及相关气候对当地社会减缓和适应战略至关重要。我们回顾了在气候变化框架内对亚热带高压的当前理解。

最近的发现

预计的副热带高压变化并不均匀。在两个半球,集约化,减弱和转变可能有很大的不同,但是在不同的海洋盆地中也可能发生变化。在某些地区,副热带高压和相关动力学的大型模型间展布表示是造成预测不确定性的主要原因。对预计变化的理解和评估也可能取决于所考虑的指标,并且可能需要将热力学和动力学过程分开进行研究。

概要

亚热带高压的动力学具有公认的理论背景,但对其变异性和变化的理解仍然受到较大不确定性的影响。气候模型系统误差,低频混沌变异性,耦合的海洋-大气过程以及对气候强迫的敏感性都是不确定性的来源,这些不确定性降低了人们对气候变化(包括亚热带高压)在大气环流方面的信心。来自与直接二氧化碳辐射强迫和间接海面温度变暖有关的组件之间的拔河而来的补偿信号强加了必须考虑的限制。
更新日期:2018-09-06
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