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Relationships between risk of causing a motorway crash in Austria and attributes of drivers
European Transport Research Review ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-09 , DOI: 10.1186/s12544-019-0383-3
Wolfgang J. Berger , Reinhard Hössinger

The emphasis of the study presented in this paper was to identify the attributes of drivers who are prone to cause a motorway crash. It was induced byambitions to enhance the effectiveness of traffic safety campaigns by identifying subgroups of drivers more precisely. For this purpose we conducted an accident data analysis of all injury crashes 2012–2014 on Austrian motorways. Since 2012 it is possible for the police to label the “mainly responsible person” for the crash in the Austrian electronic accident recording system. It turned out that the quality of the data had some limitations, which required considerable pre-processing. The analysis by comparing the proportions of “mainly responsible” and “not responsible” drivers was done using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. The binary characteristic, if a person was, according to the police, mainly responsible for the crash served as response variable. It was regressed on various personal and vehicle characteristics in order to identify their influence on the probability of causing a crash. The results yield apparent tendencies, some of which support well-known pattern, e.g., the disproportionally high risk of motorcyclists and - to a lesser extent - young and elderly car drivers to cause an accident. Other results were less expected, e.g., the higher risk of foreign car drivers (compared to Austrian drivers) as well as drivers of light trucks, whereas drivers of heavy trucks revealed a below-average risk of causing a crash. The differences between male and female car drivers were small from young to middle age and fully disappeared in the high age group. There is some evidence that the frequency and experience of driving on a motorway have more influence on the risk of causing a crash than the driver’s gender. From this we conclude that motorway safety campaigns should on the one hand focus on the abovementioned groups of high risk drivers and on the other hand, in terms of car drivers, equally address both male and female drivers.

中文翻译:

奥地利造成高速公路交通事故的风险与驾驶员属性之间的关系

本文提出的研究重点是确定容易造成高速公路碰撞的驾驶员的属性。通过雄心勃勃的雄心壮志来提高交通安全运动的有效性,方法是更精确地识别驾驶员的子类别。为此,我们对2012-2014年奥地利高速公路上的所有伤害事故进行了事故数据分析。自2012年以来,警察可以在奥地利电子事故记录系统中为事故负责人贴上“主要责任人”的标签。事实证明,数据质量有一些局限性,需要进行大量预处理。通过比较描述性统计和逻辑回归模型,通过比较“主要负责”和“不负责”驱动因素的比例进行了分析。二元特征,如果一个人是,根据警方的说法,主要负责撞车事故的是作为响应变量。对各种个人和车辆特征进行了回归分析,以识别它们对引起碰撞可能性的影响。结果显示出明显的趋势,其中一些趋势支持众所周知的模式,例如,电单车司机的高比例风险,以及(在较小程度上)年轻人和年长的汽车驾驶员造成事故的风险。其他结果的期望值较低,例如,外国汽车驾驶员(与奥地利驾驶员相比)以及轻型卡车驾驶员的风险较高,而重型卡车驾驶员的事故风险低于平均水平。从年轻到中年,男女汽车驾驶员之间的差异很小,而在高龄组中则完全消失了。有证据表明,在高速公路上驾驶的频率和经验对撞车危险的影响比驾驶员的性别更大。由此可以得出结论,高速公路安全运动一方面应侧重于上述高风险驾驶员群体,另一方面就汽车驾驶员而言,应同时针对男性和女性驾驶员。
更新日期:2019-12-09
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