CANEGRO-Sugarcane model was used to assess the impact of climate change on sugarcane in different combinations of elevated temperature and CO₂ concentrations. Additionally, we used dynamically downscaled bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) data using RegCM4 under RCP4.5 scenario (2040–2060) to project the future change in sugarcane stalk fresh mass (SFM) and sucrose mass (SM). The results showed an increase in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation in the future projections at the study site. The SFM and SM were found to be vulnerable (3–25% decrease) by increasing temperature (1–4 °C), however, a higher concentration (2–14% increase) was observed for both SFM and SM under elevated CO₂ levels (450–850 ppm). The combined effect of increased temperature and elevated CO₂ had a beneficial effect on SFM but negative on SM (more for rainfed condition). Overall, SFM was projected to increase by 3–39% (rainfed) and 7–47% (irrigated) in 2040–2060 relative to 1971–2000 in diverse agro-climatic zones of the region. Similarly, SM was projected to decrease by 9–69% (rainfed) and 6–37% (irrigated). In general, water stress conditions combined with the projected increase in temperature adversely affected the sugarcane. The findings suggest the development of a efficient water use, heat-tolerant cane variety and improved farm management strategies in the near future to assist the sugar industry and to adapt to the changing climate in northern India. This is required in the greater perspective of decrease in sucrose mass in spite of double-fold increase in CO₂.

中文翻译：

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利用CANEGRO-Sugarcane模型模拟气候变化对印度北部不同农业气候区的甘蔗的影响

CANEGRO-Sugarcane模型用于评估在高温和CO ₂浓度不同组合下气候变化对甘蔗的影响。此外，在RCP4.5情景（2040-2060年）下，我们使用RegCM4动态缩小了偏倚校正的区域气候模型（RCM）数据，以预测甘蔗茎新鲜质量（SFM）和蔗糖质量（SM）的未来变化。结果表明，在研究地点的未来预测中，温度，降雨和太阳辐射会增加。通过升高温度（1-4°C），发现SFM和SM易受伤害（降低3–25％），但是在CO ₂升高的情况下，SFM和SM的浓度都较高（升高2–14％）浓度（450–850 ppm）。温度升高和CO升高的综合作用₂对SFM有益，但对SM不利（雨育条件下更多）。总体而言，与1971-2000年相比，该地区不同的农业气候区的SFM预计到2040-2060年将增加3-39％（降雨）和7％-47％（灌溉）。同样，SM预计将下降9–69％（多雨）和6–37％（灌溉）。通常，水分胁迫条件与预计的温度升高相结合会对甘蔗产生不利影响。研究结果表明，在不久的将来，将开发出高效用水，耐热甘蔗品种以及改进的农场管理策略，以协助制糖业并适应印度北部气候变化。从更大的角度来看，这是必需的，尽管蔗糖质量下降了两倍，但CO _2却增加了两倍。