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Spatiotemporal variations of thunderstorm frequency and its prediction over Bangladesh
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-02 , DOI: 10.1007/s00703-019-00720-6
Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam , Md. Nafiuzzaman , Jannatul Rifat , M. Atiqur Rahman , Ronghao Chu , Meng Li

Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of thunderstorm (TS) frequency over Bangladesh under the changing climate is of immense importance but remains a challenging task due to the lack of persistent and reliable weather data set. This study demonstrates a statistically significant increasing trend in the occurrence of monthly, seasonal, and annual TS frequencies except for decadal periods across Bangladesh during the past 6 decades. Further, land use influences and seasonal variabilities in convective available potential energy (CAPE) are also explored in various regions to understand the spatial variabilities among different parts in Bangladesh. The results show the highest occurrence of TS in monsoon and the lowest occurrence in the winter season. The results of Ward’s Hierarchical Cluster analysis (WHCA) illustrate four clusters for the whole country, where the higher TS frequency was observed in northeastern and northern regions and the lower in the southern part of Bangladesh due to the variation of CAPE and development of the low-pressure system. The occurrence of TS frequency maxima and lower coefficients of variation are found in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The variation coefficient of the winter season is high, while the pre-monsoon season is low. The results of Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests reveal the highest increase and decrease trends in M. Court and Tangail stations. The ARIMA model outcomes are consistent with the findings of MK and SR tests. Overall, this study reveals that elevated CAPE and climate warming may be reasoned of increasing the TS frequency over Bangladesh.

中文翻译:

孟加拉国雷暴频率时空变化及其预测

了解气候变化下孟加拉国雷暴 (TS) 频率的时空变化非常重要,但由于缺乏持久和可靠的天气数据集,这仍然是一项具有挑战性的任务。这项研究表明,在过去的 6 年里,除孟加拉国的十年期外,每月、季节性和每年 TS 频率的发生率都呈现出统计学上显着的增加趋势。此外,还探索了各个地区的土地利用影响和对流可用势能 (CAPE) 的季节性变化,以了解孟加拉国不同地区之间的空间变化。结果表明,季风季节TS发生率最高,冬季最低。Ward's Hierarchical Cluster analysis (WHCA) 的结果显示了整个国家的四个集群,由于 CAPE 的变化和低洼地区的发展,在孟加拉国的东北部和北部地区观察到较高的 TS 频率,在孟加拉国南部观察到较低的 TS 频率。 -压力系统。在季风前和季风季节发现了 TS 频率最大值和较低的变异系数。冬季变异系数高,季风前期低。Mann-Kendall (MK) 和 Spearman's rho (SR) 检验的结果显示 M. Court 和 Tangail 站的上升和下降趋势最高。ARIMA 模型结果与 MK 和 SR 测试的结果一致。全面的,
更新日期:2020-01-02
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