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Impact of linear correlation on construction project performance using stochastic linear scheduling
Visualization in Engineering Pub Date : 2017-04-27 , DOI: 10.1186/s40327-017-0045-2
Ricardo Eiris Pereira , Ian Flood

In the construction industry, the productivity of all trades is directly impacted by uncertainty and variability. For repetitive projects, smooth work flow of productive resources is necessary to minimize or eliminate interruptions and idle time with the objective of reducing costs. An ideal or near optimal solution requires careful planning of the sequence, timing and resource allocations for each activity. Earlier research has demonstrated that uncertainty in the duration of repeated activities can have a significant impact on what is determined to be the optimum project plan. This suggests that correlation in the duration of repeated activities (where durations are stochastic) may also be important in determining the most favorable plan. This study assesses the significance of correlation in this respect, using a Linear Scheduling framework for modeling repetitive construction work. Numerical and graphical results are used in a case study to evaluate and compare the optimal solution derived for both deterministic and stochastic environments. For the stochastic environment, a range of levels of correlation are considered using linear correlation between immediate successor repetitions of an activity. The results provide insight into the effects of different degrees of correlation on the expected project duration, cost, crew and equipment idle times and interruptions. The correlation level has effects that translate into performance tradeoffs depending on the initial plan assumptions applied to the activities. The impact of full correlation on the optimality of a project plan was found, on average, to introduce idle time to crews equal to 7% of their active time, and to cause avoidable delays to the completion of a project equal to 12% of the project duration. The authors believe these inefficiencies justify further investigation of the impact of correlation on construction projects, including the development of more sophisticated models of correlation.

中文翻译:

随机线性调度对线性关联对建设项目绩效的影响

在建筑行业中,不确定性和可变性直接影响所有行业的生产率。对于重复性项目,必须有生产资源的平稳工作流程,以最大程度地减少或消除中断和空闲时间,以降低成本。理想或接近最佳的解决方案需要仔细计划每个活动的顺序,时间安排和资源分配。早期的研究表明,重复活动持续时间的不确定性可能对确定最佳项目计划产生重大影响。这表明重复活动的持续时间(持续时间是随机的)之间的相关性对于确定最有利的计划也可能很重要。这项研究评估了相关性在这方面的重要性,使用线性计划框架对重复的施工工作进行建模。在案例研究中使用数字和图形结果评估和比较针对确定性和随机环境得出的最佳解决方案。对于随机环境,使用活动的直接后继重复之间的线性相关性来考虑一系列相关性级别。结果提供了有关不同关联度对预期项目工期,成本,人员和设备闲置时间以及中断的影响的见解。相关级别的影响会转化为绩效权衡,具体取决于应用于活动的初始计划假设。平均而言,发现完全相关对项目计划的最优性的影响,给工作人员带来相当于其工作时间7%的闲置时间,并导致可以避免的,等于项目持续时间12%的项目完成延误。作者认为,这些低效率证明了对相关性对建设项目的影响进行进一步研究的合理性,包括开发更复杂的相关性模型。
更新日期:2017-04-27
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