Because of the substances they process and the conditions of operation, chemical plants are systems prone to the occurrence of undesirable and potentially dangerous events. Major accidents may occur when a triggering event produces a cascading accident that propagates to other units, a scenario known as domino effect. Assessing the probability of experiencing a domino effect and estimating the magnitude of its consequences is a complex task, as it depends on the nature of the substances being processed, the operating conditions, the failure proneness of equipment units, the execution of preventive maintenance activities, and of course the plant layout. In this work, we propose a stochastic modeling methodology to perform a probabilistic analysis of the likelihood of domino effects caused by propagating vapor cloud explosions. Our methodology combines mathematical models of the physical characteristics of the explosion, with stochastic state-based models representing the actual propagation among equipment units and the effect of maintenance activities. Altogether, the models allow predicting the likelihood of major events occurrence and the associated costs. A case study is analyzed, where various layouts of atmospheric gasoline tanks are assessed in terms of the predicted consequences of domino effects occurrence. The results of the analyses show that our approach can provide precious insights to support decision-making for safety and cost management.

中文翻译：

---

化工厂蒸汽云爆炸多米诺效应的随机建模与分析

由于它们处理的物质和操作条件，化工厂是容易发生不良和潜在危险事件的系统。当触发事件产生传播到其他单位的级联事故时，可能会发生重大事故，这种情况称为多米诺骨牌效应。评估发生多米诺骨牌效应的可能性并估计其后果的严重程度是一项复杂的任务，因为它取决于所处理物质的性质、操作条件、设备单元的故障倾向、预防性维护活动的执行、当然还有工厂布局。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种随机建模方法来对传播的蒸汽云爆炸引起的多米诺骨牌效应的可能性进行概率分析。我们的方法结合了爆炸物理特性的数学模型，以及代表设备单元之间实际传播和维护活动影响的基于随机状态的模型。总之，这些模型允许预测重大事件发生的可能性和相关成本。分析了一个案例研究，其中根据多米诺骨牌效应发生的预测后果评估了大气汽油罐的各种布局。分析结果表明，我们的方法可以提供宝贵的见解，以支持安全和成本管理的决策。这些模型可以预测重大事件发生的可能性和相关成本。分析了一个案例研究，其中根据多米诺骨牌效应发生的预测后果评估了大气汽油罐的各种布局。分析结果表明，我们的方法可以提供宝贵的见解，以支持安全和成本管理的决策。这些模型可以预测重大事件发生的可能性和相关成本。分析了一个案例研究，其中根据多米诺骨牌效应发生的预测后果评估了大气汽油罐的各种布局。分析结果表明，我们的方法可以提供宝贵的见解，以支持安全和成本管理的决策。