Purpose of Review

Knowledge of how monsoons will respond to external forcings through the twenty-first century has been confounded by incomplete theories of tropical climate and insufficient representation in climate models. This review highlights recent insights from past warm climates and historical trends that can inform our understanding of monsoon evolution in the context of an emerging energetic framework.

Recent Findings

Projections consistent with paleoclimate evidence and theory indicate expanded/wetter monsoons in Africa and Asia, with continued uncertainty in the Americas. Twentieth century observations are not congruent with expectations of monsoon responses to radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, due to the confounding effect of aerosols. Lines of evidence from warm climate analogues indicate that while monsoons respond in globally coherent and predictable ways to orbital forcing and inter-hemispheric thermal gradients, there are differences in response to these forcings and also between land and ocean.

Summary

Further understanding of monsoon responses to climate change will require refinement of the energetic framework to incorporate zonal asymmetries and the use of model hierarchies.

中文翻译：

---

季风对气候变化的响应-连接过去，现在和未来

审查目的

关于热带气候理论不完整和气候模型表示不足的认识，使人们对季风在二十一世纪将如何对外部强迫做出反应的认识感到困惑。这篇综述重点介绍了过去温暖气候和历史趋势的最新见解，这些见解可以帮助我们了解新兴的充满活力的框架下的季风演变。

最近的发现

与古气候证据和理论一致的预测表明，非洲和亚洲的季风扩大/更佳，而美洲的不确定性仍在持续。由于气溶胶的混杂效应，二十世纪的观测结果与季风对温室气体辐射强迫的反应的预期不一致。来自温暖气候类似物的证据表明，尽管季风以全球连贯且可预测的方式对轨道强迫和半球间温度梯度做出反应，但对这些强迫的反应以及陆地和海洋之间的反应都存在差异。

概要

进一步了解季风对气候变化的响应，将需要完善能量框架，以纳入区域不对称性和使用模型层次结构。