Laboratory and field tests have been highlight the importance of choosing an optimal Wolbachia strain to ensure the success of colonization and persistence of the released Aedes aegypti infected mosquito. Thresholds for vertical infection transmission and male sterilization depend on bacterial density and its distribution in mosquitoes tissue, which also affects strongly mosquito fitness. Temperature variation during mosquito development phase is an important factor that can affect the feasibility of this novel technique to control dengue transmission. In this context, a mathematical model is proposed to assess the factibility of dengue control transmission using a transinfection of A. aegypti with a Wolbachia strain. This model takes the form of a delay-differential system with two delays. The strength of this approach is measured by the fact that it can address several aspects of the problem, through scenarios construction where model parameters are setting according to mosquito genetic background, its ability to transmit the bacteria to the next generation, and its competence to block virus replication. The persistence of both infected and wild population is explored in the context of mosquito’s fitness, host-symbiont interaction, and temperature change. Surprisingly, the model predicts that mosquito population extinction can occur in a region of the parameter space where the reproductive number of the wild population is bigger than one and migration of mosquitoes from surrounding areas is not allowed.

中文翻译：

---

埃及伊蚊与沃尔巴克氏菌的相互作用：环境变化中的种群持久性

实验室和现场测试已经突出显示了选择最佳沃尔巴克菌菌株以确保成功释放被埃及伊蚊感染的定居和持久性的重要性。垂直感染传播和雄性绝育的阈值取决于细菌密度及其在蚊子组织中的分布，这也极大地影响了蚊子的适应性。蚊子发育阶段的温度变化是一个重要因素，可能会影响这种控制登革热传播的新技术的可行性。在这种情况下，提出了一个数学模型来评估使用埃及伊蚊与沃尔巴克氏菌的转染来评估登革热控制传播的真实性。应变。该模型采用具有两个延迟的延迟-差分系统的形式。通过可以根据蚊子遗传背景设置模型参数的场景构建，其将细菌传播给下一代的能力以及其阻断能力的能力，可以解决该问题的多个方面，从而衡量了该方法的优势。病毒复制。在蚊子的适应性，宿主与共生体之间的相互作用以及温度变化的背景下，探索了感染和野生种群的持久性。出人意料的是，该模型预测蚊子种群的灭绝可能发生在参数空间的某个区域，在该区域中，野生种群的繁殖数量大于一个，并且不允许蚊子从周围地区迁移。