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GIS based quantification and mapping of climate change vulnerability hotspots in Addis Ababa
Geoenvironmental Disasters Pub Date : 2018-09-21 , DOI: 10.1186/s40677-018-0106-4
Getnet Feyissa , Gete Zeleke , Ephrem Gebremariam , Woldeamlak Bewket

Unlike the studies undertaken on agricultural and hydrological sectors, focused climate change vulnerability researches in urban centers in Ethiopia is not widely available and of recent history. However, as many signals of climate change vulnerability started to happen in urban centers as well, it is inevitable to analyze, quantify, map, prioritize and be prepared for adaptation measures. This study is therefore, tried to assess, quantify and map climate change vulnerability in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by integrating two climate change vulnerability assessment models, namely, the Sullivan and Meigh’s Model of composite climate change vulnerability index and the IPCC’s approach of vulnerability assessment which comprises exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Fifteen sub-components of vulnerability indicators were identified in ten sub-cities (Addis Ketema, Arada, Akaki-Kality, Bole, Gulelle, Kirkos, Kolfe-Keraniyo, Lideta, Nifasilk-Lafto and Yeka) of Addis Ababa. Due to the scale, degree, amount and unit of measurement for the selected indicators varied, their values were normalized to a number which ranges between 0 and 1, indicating as the values increased to 1, vulnerability to climate change increases. The study uses Iyengar and Sudarshan’s unequal weighting system, to assign a weight to all indicators. The results were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2 package. The results indicated that the ten sub-cities in Addis Ababa were found in different levels of vulnerability to climate change. The exposure and sensitivity were highest for Addis Ketema, Arada, and Lideta which are found in central parts of the city, with a normalization index value greater than 0.5. The adaptive capacity index is the highest in Gulelle, Bole, and Arada sub-cities. These sub-cities have better quality houses, well-planned districts, good infrastructural facilities and good coverage of green areas compared to others. The overall climate change vulnerability was the highest (normalized index > 0.5) in Arada, Addis Ketema and Lideta, due to the adaptation capacity is the lowest compared to other sub-cities. Addis Ababa is vulnerable to climate change impacts and the degree of vulnerability is underpinned by the interaction of multiple factors mainly adaptive capacities of sub-cities, location based characteristics and changes in climatic parameters. These present a need to strengthen mitigation and adaptation activities and prioritize sub cities for intervention based on the degree of vulnerability. It is also understood that the Sullivan and Meigh’s Model and IPCC’s approach for climate change analyses, could be used simultaneously for preparing vulnerability index per different geographical locations.

中文翻译:

基于GIS的亚的斯亚贝巴气候变化脆弱性热点的量化和制图

与对农业和水文部门进行的研究不同,在埃塞俄比亚城市中心开展的针对气候变化脆弱性的重点研究尚不广泛,并且历史悠久。但是,由于许多气候变化脆弱性信号也开始在城市中心发生,因此不可避免地需要分析,量化,绘制地图,确定优先次序并为适应措施做好准备。因此,本研究试图通过整合两个气候变化脆弱性评估模型,即综合气候变化脆弱性指数的Sullivan和Meigh模型以及IPCC脆弱性评估方法,来评估,量化和绘制埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴的气候变化脆弱性其中包括曝光度,灵敏度和适应能力。在亚的斯亚贝巴的十个亚市(亚的斯亚的斯凯提马,阿拉达,阿卡奇-凯拉特,伯乐,古列勒,柯尔科斯,科夫-卡拉尼约,利德塔,尼法希尔克-拉夫托和叶卡)确定了脆弱性指标的15个子成分。由于所选指标的规模,程度,数量和度量单位的不同,因此将其值归一化为介于0到1之间的数字,表明随着值增加到1,对气候变化的脆弱性也会增加。该研究使用艾扬格和苏达尔山的不平等权重系统为所有指标分配权重。使用ArcGIS 10.2程序包映射结果。结果表明,在亚的斯亚贝巴的十个亚城市发现了不同程度的易受气候变化影响的能力。亚的斯亚的斯亚贝斯·凯特玛(Adis Ketema),阿拉达(Arada),和Lideta位于城市中心地区,标准化指数值大于0.5。适应能力指数在古莱尔,博莱和阿拉达等城市最高。与其他城市相比,这些副城市的房屋质量更好,规划良好的区域,良好的基础设施以及对绿地的良好覆盖。在阿拉达,亚的斯亚的斯凯塔马和里德塔,气候变化的总体脆弱性最高(归一化指数> 0.5),因为与其他副城市相比,其适应能力最低。亚的斯亚贝巴易受气候变化影响,脆弱性的程度受到多种因素相互作用的影响,这些因素主要是副城市的适应能力,基于位置的特征和气候参数的变化。这些都需要加强缓解和适应活动,并根据脆弱程度对次城市进行干预。还应理解,沙利文和米利的模型以及IPCC的气候变化分析方法可以同时用于准备每个不同地理位置的脆弱性指数。
更新日期:2018-09-21
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