Freight forecasting models have been significantly improved in recent years, especially in the field of goods vehicle behavior modeling. On the other hand, the improvements to commodity flow modeling, which provide inputs for goods vehicle simulations, were limited. Contributing to this component in urban freight modeling systems, we propose an error component logit mixture model for matching a receiver to a supplier that considers two-layers in supplier selection: distribution channels and specific suppliers. The distribution channel is an important element in freight modeling, as the type of distribution channel is relevant to various aspects of shipments and vehicle trips. The model is estimated using the data from the Tokyo Metropolitan Freight Survey. We demonstrate how typical establishment survey data (i.e. establishment and outbound shipment records) can be used to develop the model. The model captures the correlation structure of potential suppliers defined by business function and provides insights on the differences in the supplier choice by distribution channel. The reproducibility tests confirm the validity of the proposed approach, which is currently integrated into a metropolitan-scale agent-based freight modeling system, for practical use.

中文翻译：

---

大都市规模货运建模系统的商品流量估计：使用误差分量 logit 混合模型考虑分销渠道的供应商选择

货运预测模型近年来得到了显着改进，尤其是在货车行为建模领域。另一方面，为货车模拟提供输入的商品流建模的改进是有限的。为城市货运建模系统中的这个组件做出贡献，我们提出了一个错误组件 logit 混合模型，用于将接收器与供应商匹配，在供应商选择中考虑两层：分销渠道和特定供应商。分销渠道是货运建模中的一个重要元素，因为分销渠道的类型与运输和车辆旅行的各个方面相关。该模型是使用东京都货运调查的数据估算的。我们展示了典型的企业调查数据（即 建立和出货记录）可用于开发模型。该模型捕获由业务功能定义的潜在供应商的相关结构，并提供有关分销渠道供应商选择差异的见解。再现性测试证实了所提出的方法的有效性，该方法目前已集成到基于大都市规模的基于代理的货运建模系统中，以供实际使用。