Purpose of Review

The number of invasive alien insects that adversely affect trees and forests continues to increase as do associated ecological, economic, and sociological impacts. Prevention strategies remain the most cost-effective approach to address the issue, but risk management decisions, particularly those affecting international trade, must be supported by scientifically credible pest risk assessments. Pest risk assessments typically include an evaluation of the suitability of the climate for pest establishment within an area of concern. A number of species distribution models have been developed to support those efforts, and these models vary in complexity from simple climate matching to mechanistic models. This review discusses the rationale for species distribution models and describes some common and influential approaches.

Recent Findings

Species distribution models that use distributional records and environmental covariates are routinely applied when ecological information about a species of concern is limited, an all-too common situation for pest risk assessors. However, fundamental assumptions of the models may not always hold.

Summary

A structured literature review suggests that many common species distribution models are not regularly applied to alien insects that may threaten trees and forests. For ten high-impact alien insect species that are invading North America, MaxEnt and CLIMEX were applied more often than other modeling approaches. Some impediments to model development and publication exist. More applications of species distribution models to forest insects are needed in the peer-reviewed literature to ensure the credibility of pest risk maps for regulatory decision making, to deepen understanding of the factors that dictate species’ distributions, and to better characterize uncertainties associated with these models.

中文翻译：

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气候分析以评估森林入侵昆虫的风险：与先进模型的简单匹配

审查目的

对树木和森林造成不利影响的外来入侵昆虫的数量继续增加，同时也伴随着相关的生态，经济和社会影响。预防策略仍然是解决该问题的最具成本效益的方法，但是风险管理决策，尤其是影响国际贸易的风险管理决策，必须得到科学可靠的有害生物风险评估的支持。有害生物风险评估通常包括对关注区域内有害生物形成气候的适宜性评估。已经开发了许多物种分布模型来支持这些工作，并且这些模型的复杂性从简单的气候匹配到机械模型都各不相同。这篇评论讨论了物种分布模型的基本原理，并描述了一些常见且有影响力的方法。

最近的发现

当有关物种的生态信息有限时，通常会使用使用分布记录和环境协变量的物种分布模型，这对于有害生物风险评估者来说是非常普遍的情况。但是，模型的基本假设可能并不总是成立。

概要

一篇结构化的文献综述表明，许多常见物种分布模型并未定期应用于可能威胁树木和森林的外来昆虫。对于入侵北美的十种高影响力外来昆虫物种，与其他建模方法相比，使用MaxEnt和CLIMEX的频率更高。存在模型开发和发布的一些障碍。在同行评审的文献中，需要更多地将物种分布模型应用于森林昆虫，以确保有害生物风险图可用于监管决策，加深对决定物种分布的因素的理解，并更好地描述与这些相关的不确定性楷模。