The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, thus raising concerns about food security in the country’s future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability. This article addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production. A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst). This methodology simulates current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops such as bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean, in eight agricultural regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the “no regrets” principle into consideration, we also explore the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops, maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Here, changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be very effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase; a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut, yields were almost trebled due to increase length of growing period and the positive effects of higher CO₂ concentrations. These results better inform wider studies and development strategies on sustainable agriculture in the area by providing an indication as to the potential direction in shifts in production capabilities. Our approach highlights the benefit of using models as tools to investigate potential climate change impacts, where results can supplement existing knowledge. The findings also provide useful guidance and motivation to public authorities and development agencies interested in food security issues in Cameroon and elsewhere.

中文翻译：

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喀麦隆针对气候变化对作物生产的适应性评估

喀麦隆的农业部门是当地生态系统的重要组成部分，可能容易受到气候变化的影响，从而引起对该国未来粮食安全的担忧。适应策略可能能够缓解某些漏洞。本文讨论了喀麦隆粮食生产背景下的某些适应选择问题。应用一种方法，将两个大气海洋通用循环模型（NASA / Goddard研究所的GISS和英国的HadCM3）的瞬态诊断与耕作系统仿真模型（CropSyst）耦合。该方法模拟了喀麦隆八个农业地区所选关键作物（如腰果，花生，玉米，高粱和大豆）的当前和未来（2020年，2080年）作物产量。我们的结果表明，对于未来，估计班巴拉花生，大豆和花生的单产将大幅增加，而玉米和高粱的单产几乎没有变化，甚至没有下降，甚至有所下降，具体取决于气候情景和所调查的农业地区。考虑到“无悔”原则，我们还探索了仅在GISS A2和B2标记情景下针对三种作物（玉米，高粱和巴巴拉花生）的特定适应策略的优势。在这里，改变播种日期可能无法有效抵消不利的气候影响，因为狭窄的降雨带严格决定了喀麦隆农场作业的时间。相反，事实证明，开发新品种的可能性在抵消不利影响方面非常有效，在不进行管理更改的情况下，根据不同的方案预测可以最大程度地提高生产率。例如，在气候变化方案GISS A2 2080下，玉米单产下降14.6％转化为32.1％的增长。高粱产量下降39.9％，增加了17.6％，而对于班巴拉花生，由于生育期的延长和较高CO的积极影响，产量几乎翻了三倍。₂浓度。这些结果通过提供有关生产能力转移的潜在方向的指示，更好地为该地区的可持续农业研究和发展战略提供了依据。我们的方法强调了使用模型作为工具来调查潜在的气候变化影响的好处，其中结果可以补充现有知识。研究结果也为对喀麦隆和其他地方的粮食安全问题感兴趣的公共当局和发展机构提供了有用的指导和动力。