Improving our ability to cope with large risks is one of the key challenges for humankind in this century. This article outlines a research program in this perspective. Starting with a concrete example of a relatively small disaster, it questions simplistic ideas of rationality. It then proposes a fresh look at the concepts of probability and utility in the context of socio-ecological systems. This leads first to an emphasis on the problem of equilibrium selection, and then to a distinction between three kinds of resilience that matter both for theory and practice of risk management. They can be investigated by paying attention to the transitions into and out of actual disasters.

中文翻译：

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风险，合理性和弹性

提高我们应对大风险的能力是本世纪人类面临的主要挑战之一。本文从这个角度概述了一个研究程序。从一个相对较小的灾难的具体例子开始，它质疑简单化的理性观念。然后，它对社会生态系统中的概率和效用的概念进行了重新审视。这首先导致对均衡选择问题的重视，然后导致对风险管理的理论和实践都重要的三种弹性之间的区别。可以通过关注实际灾难进出的转变来进行调查。