The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real output at the macro level and the sectoral levels in three main economic sectors, namely the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors in Egypt during the period 1971–2013. I use Johansen cointegration approach, vector error correction model, and Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66:225–250, 1995) approach. Empirical findings reveal the existence of a cointegration relationship between the variables at the macro level and the sectoral levels. At the macro level, there is bidirectional causality between real output and electricity consumption. Whereas at the sectoral levels, there exists bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and real output in the services sector and unidirectional causality running from real output in the industrial sector to electricity consumption. However, there is no causal relationship between electricity consumption and real output in the agricultural sector. These results can help policymakers in setting the appropriate electricity conservation policies that enhance economic growth at the macro level and the sectoral levels to prevent any possible adverse effect that may harm economic and social development. Additionally, ensuring a higher level of electricity generation needed for achieving high and sustainable economic growth is vital, where higher electricity generation can be provided through investing in clean technologies and renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar energy.

中文翻译：

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调查用电量与部门产出之间的因果关系：来自埃及的证据

这项研究的目的是调查1971-2013年期间埃及三个主要经济部门（即农业，工业和服务业）的宏观水平和部门水平的电力消耗与实际产出之间的因果关系。我使用Johansen协整方法，矢量误差校正模型以及Toda和Yamamoto（J Econom 66：225–250，1995）方法。经验发现表明，宏观层面和部门层面的变量之间存在协整关系。在宏观层面，实际产出与电力消耗之间存在双向因果关系。在部门一级，服务业的电力消耗和实际产出之间存在双向因果关系，而从工业部门的实际产出到电力消耗则存在单向因果关系。但是，农业部门的电力消耗与实际产出之间没有因果关系。这些结果可以帮助政策制定者制定适当的节电政策，从而在宏观层面和部门层面促进经济增长，以防止可能损害经济和社会发展的任何不利影响。此外，确保实现高水平和可持续的经济增长所需的更高水平的发电至关重要，在这种情况下，可以通过投资清洁技术和可再生能源来提供更高的发电量，