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SIR-Type Epidemic Models as Block-Structured Markov Processes
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-04-03 , DOI: 10.1007/s11009-019-09710-y
Claude Lefèvre , Matthieu Simon

This paper proposes a block-structured Markov process to describe the spread of epidemics of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) type. Our purpose is to determine the distribution of the final state of the process and of some other interesting measures of the dimension of the epidemic. The followed modeling approach proves to be simple and systematic. Its flexibility is underlined by the presentation of several specific models that extend the classical general epidemic. Finally, two numerical examples illustrate some of the results obtained.

中文翻译:

SIR型流行病模型作为块结构马尔可夫过程

本文提出了一种块结构马尔可夫过程来描述易感性感染去除型(SIR)型流行病的传播。我们的目的是确定过程的最终状态的分布以及流行病规模的其他一些有趣的度量。遵循的建模方法被证明是简单而系统的。它的灵活性通过扩展典型的一般流行病的几种特定模型的展示而得到强调。最后,两个数值示例说明了所获得的一些结果。
更新日期:2019-04-03
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