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Calibrating and Applying Random-Utility-Based Multiregional Input–Output Models for Real-World Applications
Networks and Spatial Economics ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s11067-019-9444-3
Chris Bachmann

Random-utility-based multiregional input–output (RUBMRIO) models are used to study the impact of changes in transport networks or spatial economies on interregional or international trade patterns. These models rely on elastic prices algorithms to estimate trade flows. According to the literature, two different RUBMRIO elastic prices algorithms exist: an original algorithm that was the subject of theoretical investigation, and a modified algorithm that has been commonly used in practice. The original algorithm measures prices and acquisition costs in dollars, whereas the modified algorithm measures prices and acquisition costs in units of utility. By deriving the equivalence conditions of these algorithms, it is proven that the modified algorithm is only equivalent to the original algorithm under very restrictive conditions: first, initial sector prices must be the same in each region; second, cost parameters must be the same for all industries; and third, no other variables can be introduced into the original trade coefficient model specification. In a numerical example, the modified algorithm results in a mean absolute percentage error of 56% for trade flow values. Due to these restrictions, it is recommended that future studies adopt the approach of determining initial RUBMRIO prices endogenously before calibration, which are shown be solved directly from a system of linear equations, and applying the original RUBMRIO elastic prices algorithm (measuring prices in dollars).

中文翻译:

校准和应用基于随机工具的多区域输入输出模型,用于实际应用

基于随机效用的多区域投入产出模型(RUBMRIO)用于研究运输网络或空间经济变化对区域间或国际贸易模式的影响。这些模型依靠弹性价格算法来估计贸易流量。根据文献,存在两种不同的RUBMRIO弹性价格算法:一种是理论研究的原始算法,另一种是在实践中常用的改进算法。原始算法以美元衡量价格和购置成本,而改进算法以效用单位衡量价格和购置成本。通过推导这些算法的等价条件,证明了在非常严格的条件下,修改后的算法仅等效于原始算法:每个地区的初始行业价格必须相同;第二,所有行业的成本参数必须相同;第三,没有其他变量可以引入原始贸易系数模型规范中。在一个数值示例中,修改后的算法导致交易流量值的平均绝对百分比误差为56%。由于这些限制,建议以后的研究采用在校准之前内生地确定初始RUBMRIO价格的方法,这些价格可以直接从线性方程组中求解,并应用原始的RUBMRIO弹性价格算法(以美元衡量价格) 。没有其他变量可以引入原始贸易系数模型规范中。在一个数值示例中,修改后的算法导致交易流量值的平均绝对百分比误差为56%。由于这些限制,建议以后的研究采用在校准之前内生地确定初始RUBMRIO价格的方法,这些价格可以直接从线性方程组中求解,并应用原始的RUBMRIO弹性价格算法(以美元衡量价格) 。没有其他变量可以引入原始贸易系数模型规范中。在一个数值示例中,修改后的算法导致交易流量值的平均绝对百分比误差为56%。由于这些限制,建议以后的研究采用在校准之前内生地确定初始RUBMRIO价格的方法,这些价格可以直接从线性方程组中求解,并应用原始的RUBMRIO弹性价格算法(以美元衡量价格) 。
更新日期:2019-01-24
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