Abstract

Species vulnerability is defined based on their exposition, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a given impact. Considering limitations to estimate the sensitivity component, we developed a framework integrating the knowledge on ecological niche models and extinction thresholds, generating species sensitivity scenarios at the landscape scale. Our aim was to assess species and landscape vulnerability for threatened mammal species from the Brazilian Cerrado by considering seven types of human-impacts and climatic suitability. We assumed that climatic-suitable landscapes with less than 50% of remaining natural vegetation are not suitable for species, while in landscapes with 50–60% of remaining natural vegetation, populations are highly vulnerable. We found a spatial match between climatic-suitable areas and highly-impacted landscape (< 50% of remaining vegetation), specifically in southern Cerrado. We attribute this result to two main reasons: (1) similar characteristics affecting both suitability for species and human activities; and (2) highly impacted landscapes are likely to shelter threatened species. Vulnerable cells, with 50–60% of remaining vegetation, were distributed throughout Cerrado, meaning that there is no spatial bias within their distribution. Range-restricted species exhibited higher variability in vulnerability compared to widely-distributed species, what could be explained by human occupation being spatially clumped. Agriculture is the major impact affecting highly-impacted landscapes (< 50% of remaining vegetation), transport infra-structure has higher impact on vulnerable landscapes. We believe that our approach can be easily applied for assessing species and landscape vulnerability in many ecological domains by adapting extinction thresholds according to the focus taxon.

中文翻译：

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塞拉多受威胁哺乳动物的脆弱性：综合景观和气候模拟方法

摘要

物种脆弱性的定义是基于对特定影响的了解，敏感性和适应能力。考虑到估计敏感度成分的局限性，我们开发了一个框架，该框架整合了有关生态位模型和灭绝阈值的知识，从而在景观尺度上产生了物种敏感度情景。我们的目标是通过考虑人类影响和气候适应性的七种类型，评估巴西Cerrado受威胁哺乳动物物种的物种和景观脆弱性。我们认为，自然植被不足50％的气候适宜景观不适合物种，而自然植被占50-60％的景观则种群高度脆弱。我们发现气候适宜区域和受高度影响的景观之间存在空间匹配（< 剩余植被的50％），特别是在塞拉多南部。我们将此结果归因于两个主要原因：（1）相似的特征同时影响物种和人类活动的适应性；（2）受严重影响的景观很可能掩盖受威胁的物种。脆弱的细胞，剩下50-60％的植被，分布在整个塞拉多，这意味着它们的分布内没有空间偏差。与分布广泛的物种相比，受距离限制的物种在脆弱性方面表现出更高的可变性，这可以通过人类在空间上的聚集来解释。农业是影响高度受影响的景观的主要影响（不到剩余植被的50％），运输基础设施对脆弱景观的影响更大。