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Evidence for satellite observed changes in the relative influence of climate indicators on autumn phenology over the Northern Hemisphere
Global and Planetary Change ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103131
Huanhuan Yuan , Chaoyang Wu , Chengyan Gu , Xiaoyue Wang

Abstract Recent climate changes have elicited diverse phenological shifts in the ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with changes in the end growth of season (EOS) varying considerably with time. Due to the anthropogenic forcing (e.g. anthropogenic radiative forcing, et al.), both the climate conditions and EOS greatly changed since 2000, but the relationship between the two remains unclear. To better understand the responses of EOS to climate change with time, we used Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover during 1982–2000 and 2001–2015 separately, aiming to identify and quantify the spatiotemporal distributions of drivers of EOS across different biomes over the NH (>30°). Considering separately these two distinct periods, we found that beginning in the 21st century both the proportion of positive significant pixels (increased by 9.2%) as well as the sensitivity (1.5 ± 4.3 day °C−1 vs. 2.7 ± 7.9 day °C−1) of the temperature vs. EOS relationship had increased. Precipitation affected EOS over a slightly increase area during these two periods, but the sensitivity decreased. Conversely, we found that the sensitivity of EOS to light availability increased for most of biomes, whereas the areas influenced increased by 7.9%. With respect to the sign of relationships between EOS and its drivers, we found that for high latitude regions (i.e., boreal forests and tundra), precipitation advanced EOS during 2001–2015 but delayed EOS during 1982–2000. Although precipitation has significant correlations for a larger area than temperature, its sensitivity was lower. Our results imply that the relative magnitude and sign of drivers of EOS has changed substantially over time and space. Improved representation of these dynamic changes will advance understanding of future climate change on plant phenology by ecosystem models.

中文翻译:

卫星观测到气候指标对北半球秋季物候相对影响变化的证据

摘要 最近的气候变化引起了北半球 (NH) 生态系统的多种物候变化,季节末生长 (EOS) 的变化随时间变化很大。由于人为强迫(如人为辐射强迫等),自2000年以来气候条件和EOS都发生了很大变化,但两者之间的关系尚不清楚。为了更好地了解 EOS 对气候随时间变化的响应,我们分别使用了全球清单建模和制图研究 (GIMMS) 得出的归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 以及 1982-2000 年和 2001-2015 年期间的温度、降水和云量,旨在识别和量化 EOS 驱动因素在 NH (>30°) 上不同生物群落的时空分布。分别考虑这两个不同的时期,我们发现从 21 世纪开始,正显着像素的比例(增加 9.2%)以及灵敏度(1.5 ± 4.3 天 °C−1 vs. 2.7 ± 7.9 天 °C) -1) 温度与 EOS 的关系有所增加。这两个时期降水对EOS的影响略有增加,但敏感性有所下降。相反,我们发现大多数生物群落的 EOS 对光照可用性的敏感性增加,而受影响的区域增加了 7.9%。关于EOS及其驱动因素之间关系的迹象,我们发现对于高纬度地区(即北方森林和苔原),降水在2001-2015年期间提前了EOS,但在1982-2000年期间推迟了EOS。尽管降水在比温度更大的区域具有显着相关性,但其敏感性较低。我们的结果意味着 EOS 驱动因素的相对大小和符号随时间和空间发生了显着变化。这些动态变化的改进表示将通过生态系统模型促进对植物物候学未来气候变化的理解。
更新日期:2020-04-01
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