This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO2 emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run.

中文翻译：

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影响谷物产量的气候变化因素的实证分析：来自土耳其的证据。

这项研究研究了1968年至2014年土耳其气候变化因素之间的动态联系，例如二氧化碳排放量，温度，降雨量和谷物产量。第一步，我们使用传统方法测试了气候因素和作物产量的平稳特性和断点单元根测试。确认给定属性后，我们使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来捕获给定时间范围内变量之间的动态关系。实证结果表明，气候变化因素与谷物产量之间存在长期的均衡关系。二氧化碳排放量和平均温度对谷物产量有多种影响，而长期和短期，平均降雨量对谷物产量都有积极影响。要检查因果关系，我们使用格兰杰因果关系检验揭示了气候变化变量对谷物产量的重大影响。温度和降雨因素之间的单向因果联系很重要。结果表明，与土地和劳动力使用相比，谷物产量受到更多气候因素的影响，如降雨和二氧化碳排放导致的温度升高。根据研究结果，很少有人提出解决气候变化因素的建议。为农民制定针对农业的适应政策，以增强他们应对气候变化的能力和适应力，例如农场做法。农业研究和开发应致力于可以耐受高温和降水的谷物作物品种。