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Incorporating safety reliability into route choice model: Heterogeneous crash risk aversions
Analytic Methods in Accident Research ( IF 12.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2020.100112
Helai Huang , Chunyang Han , Guangming Xu , Mengxi Jiang , S.C. Wong , Md Mazharul Haque

In this study, a route choice model which accounts for both travelers’ safety concern—route safety reliability—and travel time concern is proposed. Route safety reliability (variability) is defined by the distribution of the travel crash risk cost (CRC) to represent the safety condition of travel routes. We further associate the travel safety variability due to stochastic crash occurrence with travelers’ crash risk aversion route choice behaviors, and postulate that travelers acquire the variability of route travel safety based on the past experience and factor it into their route choice in the form of an effective crash risk cost (effective CRC). This effective crash cost is formed depending on travelers’ requirements on safe arrivals, and thus varies with individuals and trip specific factors (e.g. purposes). Moreover, all travelers want to minimize the summing of their travel time and their effective CRC. A route-based solution algorithm is designed to solve the route choice model. Two networks including Nguyen and Dupis’ network and Sioux falls network are conducted as numerical studies to illustrate the model. The results show that (1) the travelers’ route choice behaviors are sensitive to the route safety performance, including the average safety condition (the mean of the CRC distribution) and safety reliability (the standard deviation of the CRC distribution); (2) the safety performance of movements at intersection would significantly influence the travelers’ route choice decisions; and (3) travelers with different safety attitudes (heterogeneous crash risk aversions) would make different route choice decisions.



中文翻译:

将安全可靠性纳入路线选择模型:异构碰撞风险规避

在这项研究中,提出了一个既考虑旅客安全问题又考虑行程时间问题的路线选择模型。路线安全可靠性(可变性)由旅行事故风险成本(CRC)的分布来定义,以表示旅行路线的安全状况。我们进一步将随机事故导致的旅行安全变异性与旅行者的避险风险规避路线选择行为相关联,并假设旅行者根据过去的经验获得了路线旅行安全性的变异性,并将其以一种有效的碰撞风险成本(有效的CRC)。有效的撞车成本是根据旅行者对安全抵达的要求而形成的,因此会因个人和旅行的具体因素(例如目的)而异。此外,所有旅行者都希望将其旅行时间和有效CRC的总和最小化。设计了一种基于路径的求解算法来求解路径选择模型。作为数值研究,对两个网络进行了数值研究,包括Nguyen和Dupis的网络以及Sioux Falls网络。结果表明:(1)旅行者的路径选择行为对路径安全性能敏感,包括平均安全条件(CRC分布的均值)和安全可靠性(CRC分布的标准差);(2)交叉路口运动的安全性能将显着影响旅行者的路线选择决策;(3)具有不同安全态度(异类碰撞风险规避)的旅行者将做出不同的路线选择决策。

更新日期:2020-01-25
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