Abstract Based upon the daily minimum temperatures provided by Barcelona's official weather stations and its airport for a ten-year period (2004–2013), these daily differences were calculated as an indicator of the average intensity of the heat island, estimated to be approximately 2 °C. With the use of the best-fit probability distributions from the statistical package EasyFit, the probability values for intensities of the heat island equal to, or greater than, 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, 4 °C, etc. were calculated for the whole period, according to seasons and to months. The highest intensities are recorded in autumn and winter and the lowest ones in summer. In each of the first two seasons, a night with an intensity equal to, or exceeding, 7 °C can be expected every one thousand days, i.e. once just over every 10 years. With the reference of a study on this city from the 1980s, the intensity of Barcelona's heat island shows a slight decrease, a fact that can be associated with the stagnation of the city and a certain population decrease therein and in the neighbouring municipalities. Nonetheless, the negative effects thereof on human health have been aggravated as a result of global warming.

中文翻译：

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巴塞罗那城市热岛强度的概率值（西班牙）

摘要 根据巴塞罗那官方气象站及其机场提供的 10 年（2004-2013 年）每日最低气温，计算这些每日差异作为热岛平均强度的指标，估计约为 2 ℃。通过使用统计包 EasyFit 中的最佳拟合概率分布，热岛强度的概率值等于或大于 1 °C、2 °C、3 °C、4 °C 等。计算整个时期，根据季节和月份。秋季和冬季记录的强度最高，夏季最低。在前两个季节的每一个季节中，每千天（即每 10 年多一次）都会出现一个强度等于或超过 7 °C 的夜晚。参考 1980 年代对这座城市的研究，巴塞罗那的热岛强度略有下降，这可能与该城市的停滞以及该城市和邻近城市的人口有所减少有关。尽管如此，由于全球变暖，其对人类健康的负面影响已经加剧。