Abstract The emergence of novel diseases represents a major hurdle for the recovery of endangered populations, and in some cases may even present the threat of extinction. In recent years, epizootics of infectious diseases have emerged as a major threat to marine mammal populations, particularly group-living odontocetes. However, little research has explored the potential consequences of novel pathogens in endangered cetacean populations. Here, we present the first study predicting the spread of infectious disease over the social network of an entire free-ranging cetacean population, the southern resident killer whale community (SRKW). Utilizing 5 years of detailed data on close contacts between individuals, we build a fine-scale social network describing potential transmission pathways in this population. We then simulate the spread of cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV) over this network. Our analysis suggests that the SRKW population is highly vulnerable to CeMV. The majority of simulations resulted in unusual mortality events (UMEs), with mortality rates predicted to be at least twice the recorded maximum annual mortality. We find only limited evidence that this population's social structure inhibits disease spread. Vaccination is not likely to be an efficient strategy for reducing the likelihood of UMEs, with over 40 vaccinated individuals (>50% of the population) required to reduce the likelihood of UMEs below 5%. This analysis highlights the importance of modelling efforts in designing strategies to mitigate disease, and suggests that populations with strong social preferences and distinct social units may still be highly vulnerable to disease outbreaks.

中文翻译：

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在濒临灭绝的虎鲸种群中模拟鲸类麻疹病毒爆发

摘要 新疾病的出现是濒危种群恢复的主要障碍，在某些情况下甚至可能出现灭绝的威胁。近年来，传染病的流行已成为海洋哺乳动物种群的主要威胁，尤其是群居的齿鲸。然而，很少有研究探讨新型病原体在濒危鲸类种群中的潜在后果。在这里，我们展示了第一项预测传染病在整个自由放养的鲸类种群，即南部居民虎鲸社区 (SRKW) 的社交网络中传播的研究。利用 5 年关于个人之间密切接触的详细数据，我们构建了一个精细规模的社交网络，描述了该人群中的潜在传播途径。然后我们模拟鲸豚麻疹病毒 (CeMV) 在这个网络上的传播。我们的分析表明 SRKW 人群极易受到 CeMV 的影响。大多数模拟导致异常死亡事件 (UME)，预计死亡率至少是记录的最高年度死亡率的两倍。我们发现只有有限的证据表明该人群的社会结构抑制了疾病传播。接种疫苗不太可能是降低 UME 可能性的有效策略，需要超过 40 个接种疫苗的个体（> 50% 的人口）才能将 UME 的可能性降低到 5% 以下。该分析强调了建模工作在设计减轻疾病的策略中的重要性，