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Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal.
Ecology Letters ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-23 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13459
Maria Paniw 1, 2 , Dylan Z Childs 3 , Kenneth B Armitage 4 , Daniel T Blumstein 5, 6 , Julien G A Martin 7, 8 , Madan K Oli 9 , Arpat Ozgul 1
Affiliation  

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.

中文翻译:

评估季节性的人口协变量,以了解环境变化对冬眠哺乳动物的影响。

自然人口面临环境因素的季节性变化,这些因素会同时影响多个人口统计率(生存,发育和繁殖)。这些比率的最终协变量决定了种群动态,但是要考虑其众多的生物和非生物驱动因素是一个巨大的挑战。在这里,我们使用因子分析方法来捕获季节性人口动态的部分未观察到的驱动因素。我们使用来自黄腹土拨鼠(Marmota flaviventer)的40年基于个人的人口统计学来拟合和投影人口模型,这些模型使用潜在变量解释了季节性人口协变量。我们表明,该潜在变量通过在冬季人口统计率之间产生正协方差来描述环境质量的度量。同时,冬季生存和生殖状况变化对环境质量下降的负面反应导致人口准灭绝的风险增加,而不论夏季进行招募的人口统计学如何。我们演示了如何总结复杂的环境过程以了解季节性环境中的人口持久性。
更新日期:2020-01-23
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