Masting-temporally variable seed production with high spatial synchrony-is a pervasive strategy in wind-pollinated trees that is hypothesized to be vulnerable to climate change due to its correlation with variability in abiotic conditions. Recent work suggests that aging may also have strong effects on seed production patterns of trees, but this potential confounding factor has not been considered in previous times series analysis of climate change effects. Using a 54 year dataset for seven dominant species in 17 forests across Poland, we used the proportion of seed-producing trees (PST) to contrast the predictions of the climate change and aging hypotheses in Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur. Our results show that in all species, PST increased over time and that this change correlated most strongly with stand age, while the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, contributed to temporal trends in PST of F. sylvatica and Q. robur. Temporal variability of PST also increased over time in all species except P. sylvestris, while trends in temporal autocorrelation and among-stand synchrony reflect species-specific masting strategies. Our results suggest a pivotal role of plant ontogeny in driving not only the extent but also variability and synchrony of reproduction in temperate forest trees. In a time of increasing forest regrowth in Europe, we therefore call for increased attention to demographic effects such as aging on plant reproductive behavior, particularly in studies examining global change effects using long-term time series data.

中文翻译：

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调查气候，林分年龄和欧洲林木桅杆行为的时间趋势之间的关系。

具有高度空间同步性的随季节变化的种子生产是风铃授粉树中的普遍策略，据推测由于其与非生物条件的可变性相关，因此容易受到气候变化的影响。最近的工作表明衰老可能也对树木的种子生产模式有很大的影响，但是在以前的气候变化影响序列分析中并未考虑到这种潜在的混杂因素。我们使用了波兰17个森林中7个优势种的54年数据集，使用种子生产树的比例来对比阿尔比冷杉，水青冈，落叶松，云杉和云杉的气候变化和衰老假设的预测。 ，樟子松，栎栎和栎。我们的结果表明，在所有物种中，PST随时间增加，并且这种变化与林分年龄最密切相关，而标准化的降水-蒸散指数（一种衡量干旱的指标）导致了F. sylvatica和Q. robur的PST随时间变化。P. sylvestris以外的所有物种的PST时间变异性也随时间增加，而时间自相关和种间同步的趋势反映了特定物种的肥大策略。我们的结果表明，植物个体发育不仅在驱动温带林木的范围方面而且在驱动生殖的变异性和同步性方面都起着关键作用。因此，在欧洲森林重生增加的时代，我们呼吁人们更加关注人口统计效应，例如衰老对植物生殖行为的影响，尤其是在使用长期时间序列数据研究全球变化效应的研究中。