当前位置: X-MOL 学术Agric. Water Manag. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics
Agricultural Water Management ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106003
Meng Dai , Shengzhi Huang , Qiang Huang , Guoyong Leng , Yi Guo , Lu Wang , Wei Fang , Pei Li , Xudong Zheng

Assessment of agricultural drought risk is significant for risk division and management. Nevertheless, the drought risk dynamic evolution characteristics have not been revealed. To this end, the agricultural drought conditions are characterized by the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the time scale of SPI is determined based on agricultural damage data. The joint return periods of various drought severities and durations under different agricultural drought scenarios are calculated by using copula functions. Moreover, drought risk factors (resilience, vulnerability, and exposure) are also used to characterize drought risk. Subsequently, based on the moving window, the joint return period and risk factors in each window are calculated, and agricultural drought dynamics are explored. The Pearl River Basin (PRB) is selected as a case study. Results indicated that: (1) the 4-month most appropriate timescale for the SPI in characterizing agricultural drought based on agricultural damage data in the PRB; (2) risk factors method is more suitable than joint return period in assessing agricultural drought risk; (3) most of the PRB exhibit a significant increasing agricultural drought risk, while the drought risk of the Pearl River Delta has a decreased trend within the past 50 years. Generally, this study show new insights into agricultural drought risk assessment, thus promoting local agricultural drought preparedness and mitigation.

中文翻译:

农业干旱风险评估及其动态演化特征

农业干旱风险评估对于风险划分和管理具有重要意义。然而,干旱风险动态演化特征尚未揭示。为此,以标准化降水指数(SPI)表征农业干旱状况,并根据农业损害数据确定SPI的时间尺度。利用copula函数计算了不同农业干旱情景下各种干旱程度和持续时间的联合重现期。此外,干旱风险因素(恢复力、脆弱性和暴露度)也用于表征干旱风险。随后,基于移动窗口,计算每个窗口的联合重现期和风险因素,探索农业干旱动态。珠江流域(PRB)被选为案例研究。结果表明:(1)基于PRB中农业损害数据的SPI表征农业干旱的4个月最合适的时间尺度;(2)风险因子法比联合重现期更适合评估农业干旱风险;(3) 大部分珠江三角洲地区农业干旱风险呈显着上升趋势,而珠三角地区近50年干旱风险呈下降趋势。总的来说,这项研究显示了对农业干旱风险评估的新见解,从而促进了当地农业干旱的准备和缓解。(2)风险因子法比联合重现期更适合评估农业干旱风险;(3) 大部分珠江三角洲地区农业干旱风险呈显着上升趋势,而珠三角地区近50年干旱风险呈下降趋势。总的来说,这项研究显示了对农业干旱风险评估的新见解,从而促进了当地农业干旱的准备和缓解。(2)风险因子法比联合重现期更适合评估农业干旱风险;(3) 大部分珠江三角洲地区农业干旱风险呈显着上升趋势,而珠三角地区近50年干旱风险呈下降趋势。总的来说,这项研究显示了对农业干旱风险评估的新见解,从而促进了当地农业干旱的准备和缓解。
更新日期:2020-03-01
down
wechat
bug