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Greenhouse gas emissions, non-renewable energy consumption, and output in South America: the role of the productive structure.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-07693-9
Qiushi Deng 1 , Rafael Alvarado 2 , Elisa Toledo 3 , Leidy Caraguay 2
Affiliation  

Most of the countries of South America depend heavily on mining and agriculture, which develops through the destruction of the forest. The expansion of the agricultural frontier is more visible in countries with proximity to the Amazon. Otherwise, the increase in urban primacy and real income per capita has led to an increase in the use of non-renewable energy in recent decades. The interest in quantifying greenhouse gas emissions has increased, oriented towards the search for mechanisms that mitigate the irreversible effects of climate change. In this context, the objective of this research is to examine the causal link among non-renewable energy consumption and real GDP per capita in greenhouse gas emissions in ten countries of South America during 1971-2014. In addition, we group the countries according to their productive structure and we incorporate the structural changes of each country in the econometric estimations, allowing to significantly improve the understanding of the sources of greenhouse gases. We use cointegration and causality techniques for time series data, and we found that there is a relationship of short- and long-term equilibrium between the three variables in all countries. The causality test indicates that in Bolivia, Peru, and Uruguay, there is causality from the consumption of non-renewable energy to greenhouse gas emissions. Likewise, in Venezuela and the agricultural countries, GDP causes greenhouse gas emissions. An implication of the public policy derived from this research is that most of the countries of South America can promote a change in the energy matrix to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions without limiting economic growth.

中文翻译:

南美的温室气体排放量,不可再生能源消耗量和输出量:生产结构的作用。

南美洲的大多数国家/地区严重依赖采矿和农业,而采矿和农业是通过破坏森林来发展的。在靠近亚马逊的国家中,农业疆界的扩大更为明显。否则,近几十年来,城市至高无上和人均实际收入的增加导致了不可再生能源的使用增加。量化温室气体排放的兴趣已经增加,其方向是寻找减轻气候变化不可逆转影响的机制。在这种情况下,本研究的目的是检验1971-2014年间南美10个国家的温室气体排放中不可再生能源消耗与实际人均GDP之间的因果关系。此外,我们根据国家/地区的生产结构对它们进行分组,并将每个国家/地区的结构变化纳入计量经济估算中,从而可以大大增进对温室气体来源的了解。我们对时间序列数据使用协整和因果关系技术,并且发现在所有国家中,三个变量之间存在短期和长期均衡关系。因果关系检验表明,在玻利维亚,秘鲁和乌拉圭,存在着从不可再生能源消耗到温室气体排放的因果关系。同样,在委内瑞拉和农业国家,GDP导致温室气体排放。
更新日期:2020-01-17
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