Groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley in Nepal are under immense pressure from multiple stresses, including climate change. Due to over-extraction, groundwater resources are depleting, leading to social, environmental and economic problems. Climate change might add additional pressure by altering groundwater recharge rates and availability of groundwater. Mapping groundwater resilience to climate change can aid in understanding the dynamics of groundwater systems, facilitating the development of strategies for sustainable groundwater management. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on groundwater resources and mapping the groundwater resiliency of Kathmandu Valley under different climate change scenarios. The future climate projected using the climate data of RCM's namely ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM for three future periods: near future (2010-2039), mid future (2040-2069) and far future (2070-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were bias corrected and fed into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrological model, to estimate future groundwater recharge. The results showed a decrease in groundwater recharge in future ranging from 3.3 to 50.7 mm/yr under RCP 4.5 and 19-102.1 mm/yr under RCP 8.5 scenario. The GMS-MODFLOW model was employed to estimate the future groundwater level of Kathmandu Valley. The model revealed that the groundwater level is expected to decrease in future. Based on the results, a groundwater resiliency map of Kathmandu Valley was developed. The results suggest that groundwater in the northern and southern area of the valley are highly resilient to climate change compared to the central area. The results will be very useful in the formulation and implementation of adaptation strategies to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of Kathmandu Valley.

中文翻译：

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在气候变化情景下绘制地下水复原力图：以尼泊尔加德满都谷地为例。

尼泊尔加德满都谷地的地下水资源受到包括气候变化在内的多种压力的巨大压力。由于过度开采，地下水资源正在枯竭，导致社会，环境和经济问题。气候变化可能会通过改变地下水补给率和地下水供应量而增加额外压力。绘制地下水对气候变化的适应力图可以帮助理解地下水系统的动态，从而促进可持续地下水管理策略的发展。因此，本研究旨在分析气候变化对地下水资源的影响，并绘制不同气候变化情景下加德满都谷地的地下水弹性。使用RCM的气候数据即ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM预测未来的气候，在RCP 4.5和RCP下，三个未来时期的CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM和MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM：近期（2010-2039），中期（2040-2069）和远期（2070-2099）对8.5个情景进行了偏差校正，并将其输入水文模型土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）中，以估算未来的地下水补给量。结果表明，未来的地下水补给量在RCP 4.5下降低了3.3至50.7 mm / yr，在RCP 8.5下降低了19-102.1 mm / yr。GMS-MODFLOW模型用于估算加德满都谷地的未来地下水位。该模型显示，预计未来地下水位将下降。根据结果​​，绘制了加德满都谷地的地下水复原力图。结果表明，与中部地区相比，山谷北部和南部地区的地下水对气候变化具有高度的抵御能力。该结果对于制定和实施适应战略以抵消气候变化对加德满都谷地地下水资源的不利影响非常有用。