There is a broad agreement that psychology is facing a replication crisis. Even some seemingly well-established findings have failed to replicate. Numerous causes of the crisis have been identified, such as underpowered studies, publication bias, imprecise theories, and inadequate statistical procedures. The replication crisis is real, but it is less clear how it should be resolved. Here we examine potential solutions by modeling a scientific community under various different replication regimes. In one regime, all findings are replicated before publication to guard against subsequent replication failures. In an alternative regime, individual studies are published and are replicated after publication, but only if they attract the community's interest. We find that the publication of potentially non-replicable studies minimizes cost and maximizes efficiency of knowledge gain for the scientific community under a variety of assumptions. Provided it is properly managed, our findings suggest that low replicability can support robust and efficient science.

中文翻译：

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低可复制性可以支持强大而高效的科学。

人们普遍同意心理学正面临复制危机。甚至一些看似确定的发现也未能重现。已经确定了导致危机的多种原因，例如研究不足，出版物偏见，理论不精确以及统计程序不足。复制危机是真实的，但尚不清楚应如何解决。在这里，我们通过在各种不同复制机制下对科学共同体进行建模来研究潜在的解决方案。在一种情况下，所有发现都会在发布之前进行复制，以防止后续复制失败。在替代方案中，发表个人研究，并在发表后复制，但前提是要引起社区的兴趣。我们发现，在各种假设下，潜在的不可重复研究的发表将使科学界的成本减至最小，并使知识获取的效率最大化。如果对其进行适当的管理，我们的发现表明，低可复制性可以支持强大而高效的科学。