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Design and Analysis of Elimination Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-13 , DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiz554
Claudio Fronterre 1 , Benjamin Amoah 1 , Emanuele Giorgi 1 , Michelle C Stanton 1 , Peter J Diggle 1
Affiliation  

As neglected tropical diseases approach elimination status, there is a need to develop efficient sampling strategies for confirmation (or not) that elimination criteria have been met. This is an inherently difficult task because the relative precision of a prevalence estimate deteriorates as prevalence decreases, and classic survey sampling strategies based on random sampling therefore require increasingly large sample sizes. More efficient strategies for survey design and analysis can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in prevalence within a model-based geostatistics framework. This framework can be used for constructing predictive probability maps that can inform in-country decision makers of the likelihood that their elimination target has been met, and where to invest in additional sampling. We evaluated our methodology using a case study of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, demonstrating that a geostatistical approach outperforms approaches currently used to determine an evaluation unit’s elimination status.

中文翻译:

被忽视的热带病消除调查的设计和分析。

随着被忽视的热带病接近消灭状​​态,有必要制定有效的抽样策略来确认(或不确认)是否符合消灭标准。这是固有的难题,因为患病率估算的相对精度会随着患病率的降低而降低,因此基于随机抽样的经典调查抽样策略需要越来越大的样本量。通过在基于模型的地统计学框架内利用普遍性中的任何空间相关性,可以获得更有效的调查设计和分析策略。该框架可用于构建预测性概率图,该图可告知国内决策者实现其消除目标的可能性以及在何处进行额外采样的投资。
更新日期:2020-01-13
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