AIM To estimate the proportion of cannabis consumed in Australia by daily cannabis users. DESIGN Monte Carlo simulation using parameters estimated from nationally representative and repeated cross-sectional household surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016. SETTING Australia PARTICIPANTS: Adult samples (mean age = 49.9; 55% females) from four National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (n = 92 243). MEASUREMENT Frequency of cannabis use (daily/weekly/about once a month/every few months/once or twice a year). The weighted estimated prevalence of users in each of these frequency levels was multiplied by population size to estimate the total number of users. Quantity of cannabis use was measured as number of joints consumed. The consumption of those who reported using bongs was converted into joints based on the bong to joint ratio estimated from the survey data. We estimated the proportion of cannabis consumed by daily users by Monte Carlo simulation using parameters estimated from the household surveys. We conducted 10 000 simulation trials, and in each trial we [1] simulated the number of users at each consumption level (stratum) based on estimated prevalence and population size[2], for each simulated individual, we simulated the number of days of cannabis use in a year based on frequency data[3], for each consumption day, we simulated the quantity consumed [4] and lastly we calculated the total joints consumed at each consumption level and estimated the proportion of joints consumed by daily users out of the total consumption. FINDINGS The prevalence of past-year cannabis use increased from 8.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.5-9.4] in 2007 to 10.5% (95% CI = 10.0-11.1) in 2016, 16% of whom were daily users. Between 2007 and 2016, daily users accounted for between 81.6 and 85.7% of all cannabis consumed. Weekly users accounted for an additional 12.1-15.9%. CONCLUSION Between 2007 and 2016, only one in six Australian cannabis users were daily users, but they accounted for more than 80% of the estimated cannabis consumed in Australia.

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使用蒙特卡洛模拟估算澳大利亚每日吸食者占人口大麻消费量的比例

目的 估计每日大麻使用者在澳大利亚消费的大麻比例。设计蒙特卡罗模拟使用从 2007 年、2010 年、2013 年和 2016 年的全国代表性和重复横断面家庭调查中估计的参数。设置澳大利亚参与者：来自四项国家药物战略家庭调查（平均年龄 = 49.9；55% 女性）的成人样本（ n = 92 243）。测量大麻使用频率（每天/每周/大约每月一次/每隔几个月/每年一次或两次）。将每个频率级别中用户的加权估计流行率乘以人口规模以估计用户总数。大麻的使用量以消耗的关节数来衡量。根据调查数据估计的烟气与关节比率，报告使用烟气的人的消费量被转换为关节。我们使用从家庭调查中估计的参数，通过蒙特卡罗模拟估计了日常使用者消耗的大麻比例。我们进行了 10 000 次模拟试验，在每次试验中，我们 [1] 根据估计的流行率和人口规模 [2] 模拟了每个消费级别（层）的用户数量 [2]，对于每个模拟个体，我们模拟了一年内大麻使用频率数据[3]，对于每个消费日，我们模拟了消费量[4]，最后我们计算了每个消费级别消耗的总关节数，并估计了每日用户消耗的关节数占总人数的比例。总消费。结果 过去一年的大麻使用流行率从 2007 年的 8.9% [95% 置信区间 (CI) = 8.5-9.4] 增加到 2016 年的 10.5% (95% CI = 10.0-11.1)，其中 16% 是日常使用者. 2007 年至 2016 年期间，每日吸食者占所有大麻消费量的 81.6% 至 85.7%。每周用户占额外的 12.1-15.9%。结论 2007 年至 2016 年期间，只有六分之一的澳大利亚大麻使用者是日常使用者，但他们占澳大利亚估计大麻消费量的 80% 以上。