The negative hydrological effects of wildfire are very difficult to predict in Mediterranean forest ecosystems, due the intrinsic climate and soil characteristics of these areas. Among the hydrological models simulating surface runoff and soil erosion in these environmental contexts, the semi-empirical Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model can ensure the representation of the main physical processes, while offering ease of use and limiting the number of input parameters. However, literature reports very few modelling studies using MMF in burned areas of the Mediterranean environment with or without post-fire rehabilitation measures. To fill this gap, the capacity of the MMF model to predict the seasonal surface runoff and soil loss in a Mediterranean forest was verified and improved for unburned plots and areas affected by a wildfire, with and without post-fire straw mulch treatment. The application of MMF with default input parameters (set up according to the original guidelines of the model’s developers) led to poor performance. Conversely, after introducing some changes in input data for both the hydrological and erosive components (seasonal values of evapotranspiration, reduction of the soil hydrological depth, including soil water repellency effects in burned soils, and modelling erosive precipitation only), MMF was able to predict seasonal runoff volumes and soil loss with good reliability in all the experimented conditions.

This modelling experiment has shown the capacity of the MMF model to simulate the seasonal hydrological and erosion response of the experimental unburned and burned soils of Mediterranean semi-arid forests. Although more research is needed to validate the model's prediction capacity in these conditions, the use of MMF as a management tool may be suggested to predict the hydrogeological risk in these delicate ecosystems threatened by wildfire, as well as to evaluate the potential efficiency of soil treatments after fire.

由于地中海森林生态系统的固有气候和土壤特征，他们很难预测野火的负面水文影响。在这些环境中模拟地表径流和土壤侵蚀的水文模型中，半经验的Morgan-Morgan-Finney（MMF）模型可以确保主要物理过程的表示，同时提供易用性和限制输入参数的数量。然而，文献报道很少有采用MMF的模型研究在地中海环境的燃烧区域中进行或不进行火灾后恢复措施的。为了填补这一空白，对MMF模型预测地中海森林的季节性地表径流和土壤流失的能力进行了验证，并针对未烧成的土地和受野火影响的区域进行了改进，有无火后秸秆覆盖处理。使用默认输入参数（根据模型开发人员的原始准则进行设置）的MMF的应用导致较差的性能。相反，在引入了水文和侵蚀性成分的输入数据的某些变化（蒸散的季节值，土壤水文深度的减小（包括烧过的土壤中的憎水作用）以及仅对侵蚀性降雨进行建模）之后，MMF能够预测在所有实验条件下，季节性径流量和土壤流失具有良好的可靠性。

该建模实验显示了MMF模型模拟地中海半干旱森林的实验性未燃烧土壤和燃烧土壤的季节性水文和侵蚀响应的能力。尽管需要更多的研究来验证模型在这些条件下的预测能力，但建议使用MMF作为管理工具来预测这些受到野火威胁的脆弱生态系统中的水文地质风险，以及评估土壤处理的潜在效率大火后。