AIMS To model the effects of a range of alcohol pricing policies on alcohol consumption in subpopulation groups (e.g. alcohol consumption pattern, and age and income groups) in Australia. DESIGN We used estimated price elasticities to model the effects of proposed pricing policies on consumption for 11 beverage categories among subpopulation groups. SETTING Australia. PARTICIPANTS A total of 1789 adults (16+ years) who reported they purchased and consumed alcohol in the 2013 Australian International Alcohol Control Study, an adult population survey. MEASUREMENTS Mean and percentage changes in alcohol consumption were estimated for each scenario across subgroups. The policy scenarios evaluated included: (1) increasing the excise rate 10% for all off-premise beverages; (2) replacing the wine equalization tax with a volumetric excise rate equal to the current spirits tax rate; (3) applying a uniform excise tax rate to all beverages equal to the current sprits tax rate and a 10 or 20% increase in it; and(4) introducing a minimum unit price (MUP) on all beverages categories at $1.00, 1.30 or 1.50. FINDINGS The effects of different tax and MUP policies varied greatly across different subgroups. The effects of the MUP policy on alcohol consumption increased rapidly in the range from $1.00 to $1.50. Applying a uniform tax rate across all beverages equal to current spirits tax rate, or a 10 or 20% increase beyond that, could generate large reductions in overall alcohol consumption in Australia. Compared with the uniform tax rate with or without further tax increase, introducing a MUP at $1.30 or $1.50 could reduce consumption particularly among harmful drinkers and lower-income drinkers, with comparatively smaller impacts on moderate and higher-income drinkers. CONCLUSIONS Both uniform excise tax and minimum unit price policies are predicted to reduce alcohol consumption in Australia. Minimum unit price policies are predicted to have a greater impact on drinking among harmful drinkers than moderate drinkers.

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模拟酒精定价政策对澳大利亚亚人群酒精消费的影响

目的 模拟一系列酒精定价政策对澳大利亚亚人群（例如酒精消费模式、年龄和收入组）酒精消费的影响。设计 我们使用估计的价格弹性来模拟提议的定价政策对亚人群中 11 种饮料类别的消费的影响。设置澳大利亚。参与者 在 2013 年澳大利亚国际酒精控制研究（一项成年人口调查）中，共有 1789 名成年人（16 岁以上）报告他们购买和饮用了酒精。测量 跨亚组的每个情景估计了酒精消费的平均和百分比变化。评估的政策情景包括：(1) 将所有场外饮料的消费税提高 10%；(2) 以与现行烈酒税率相等的体积消费税取代葡萄酒均等税；(3) 对所有饮料实行统一的消费税税率，与现行的烈酒税率相同，并增加 10% 或 20%；(4) 对所有饮料类别引入最低单价 (MUP)，为 1.00 美元、1.30 美元或 1.50 美元。调查结果 不同的税收和 MUP 政策的影响在不同的子组中差别很大。MUP 政策对酒精消费的影响在 1.00 美元到 1.50 美元的范围内迅速增加。对所有饮料采用与当前烈酒税率相同的统一税率，或者在此基础上增加 10% 或 20%，可能会大幅减少澳大利亚的整体酒精消费。与有或没有进一步增税的统一税率相比，以 1.30 美元或 1 美元的价格引入 MUP。50 可以减少消费，特别是在有害饮酒者和低收入饮酒者中，对中等和高收入饮酒者的影响相对较小。结论 统一消费税和最低单价政策预计将减少澳大利亚的酒精消费。预计最低单价政策对有害饮酒者的饮酒影响比适度饮酒者更大。