Sea surface temperatures in the world’s oceans are projected to warm by 0.4–1.4 °C by mid twenty-first century causing many tropical and sub-tropical harmful dinoflagellate genera like Gambierdiscus, Fukuyoa and Ostreopsis (benthic harmful algal bloom species, BHABs) to exhibit higher growth rates over much of their current geographic range, resulting in higher population densities. The primary exception to this trend will be in the tropics where temperatures exceed species-specific upper thermal tolerances (30–31 °C) beyond which growth slows significantly. As surface waters warm, migration to deeper habitats is expected to provide refuge. Range extensions of several degrees of latitude also are anticipated, but only where species-specific habitat requirements can be met (e.g., temperature, suitable substrate, low turbulence, light, salinity, pH). The current understanding of habitat requirements that determine species distributions are reviewed to provide fuller understanding of how individual species will respond to climate change from the present to 2055 while addressing the paucity of information on environmental factors controlling small-scale distribution in localized habitats. Based on the available information, we hypothesized how complex environmental interactions can influence abundance and potential range extensions of BHAB species in different biogeographic regions and identify sentinel sites appropriate for long-term monitoring programs to detect range extensions and reduce human health risks.

预计到二十一世纪中叶，世界海洋的海表温度将升高0.4-1.4°C，从而导致许多热带和亚热带有害的鞭毛藻属，如甘比迪斯cus，福库亚和ostreopsis（有害的藻类大量繁殖物种BHAB）在其当前大部分地理区域内均具有较高的增长率，从而导致较高的种群密度。这种趋势的主要例外是在热带地区，那里的温度超过了特定物种的最高热耐受性（30–31°C），超过该温度时，生长会显着放缓。随着地表水变暖，向更深的栖息地的迁移有望提供庇护。也可以预见几个纬度的范围扩展，但是仅在满足特定物种栖息地要求的地方（例如，温度，合适的基质，低湍流，光照，盐度，pH）。综述了目前对决定物种分布的栖息地要求的理解，以更全面地了解单个物种从现在到2055年如何应对气候变化，同时解决了有关控制局部栖息地小规模分布的环境因素的信息匮乏的问题。基于现有信息，我们假设复杂的环境相互作用如何影响不同生物地理区域中BHAB物种的丰度和潜在范围扩展，并确定适合长期监测计划的前哨站点，以检测范围扩展并降低人类健康风险。