Regional approaches to coastal wetland restoration are one of the best ways to ensure that these threatened habitats persist in the face of sea level rise. Regional approaches provide a mechanism for prioritizing restoration actions in areas where future conditions will promote maximum resiliency while still providing for an appropriate composition of plant and animal habitats across the region as a whole. Developing a regional restoration strategy requires understanding historical losses relative to contemporary habitat distributions, predicting future changes due to sea level rise (and other stressors), and evaluating management actions with the potential to offset expected future losses. In this study, we present an approach to assess historical losses and future management options for more than 100 individual wetlands along the Southern California (USA) coast ranging in size from a few tenths of a hectare to over 250 ha. This analysis was conducted to support development of a regional wetland strategy that will guide restoration in Southern California for the next several decades. The approach consisted of reconstructing historical wetland distribution using US Coast and Geodetic Survey T-sheets, mapping current wetlands and classifying them into archetypes that represent different settings and processes, and predicting future distributions based on a hypsometric model of elevation changes under various sea level rise and management scenarios. Historical analysis revealed that two-thirds of the 331 wetlands present in ca. 1850 and 75% of vegetated estuarine habitat area has been lost, with most losses occurring in small to medium size wetlands. Up to 69% of the remaining marshes and flats could be lost with 1.7 m of sea level rise, with an associated increase in subtidal habitat. However, potential future losses could be largely offset, and total area could increase under scenarios of facilitated wetland migration and sediment augmentation. Although the future distribution of wetlands would likely be different from current conditions, sufficient habitat would be provided region-wide. This analysis demonstrates how regional analysis of historic, present, and likely future conditions can support a strategy that could lead to net wetland gain under future sea level rise conditions. However, immediate and decisive action is necessary.

中文翻译：

---

利用历史生态学和未来情景分析建立区域沿海湿地恢复规划目标：过去，现在，未来方法

恢复沿海湿地的区域方法是确保面对海平面上升时这些受威胁的栖息地得以持续的最佳方法之一。区域性方法提供了一种机制，该机制可在未来条件将促进最大恢复力的区域中优先进行恢复行动，同时仍可为整个区域的动植物栖息地提供适当的组成。制定区域恢复策略需要了解相对于当代栖息地分布的历史损失，预测由于海平面上升（和其他压力因素）而引起的未来变化，并评估可能抵消预期未来损失的管理措施。在这个研究中，我们提出了一种方法，用于评估南加州（美国）沿岸的100多个湿地的历史损失和未来的管理方案，规模从十分之几公顷到250公顷不等。进行该分析是为了支持制定区域湿地战略，该战略将在未来几十年内指导南加州的恢复。该方法包括使用美国海岸和大地测量T纸重建历史湿地分布，绘制当前湿地并将其分类为代表不同设置和过程的原型，并基于不同海平面上升情况下海拔高度变化的计量模型预测未来分布和管理方案。历史分析表明，大约331个湿地中有三分之二存在于约莫。1850年的植被和75％的河口栖息地丧失了，大部分损失发生在中小型湿地上。随着1.7 m的海平面上升，潮间带的栖息地随之增加，多达69％的剩余沼泽和公寓可能会消失。但是，在便利的湿地迁移和沉积物增加的情况下，潜在的未来损失可以被大部分抵消，总面积可以增加。尽管未来湿地的分布可能与当前状况有所不同，但将在整个地区提供足够的栖息地。该分析表明，对历史，当前和未来可能发生的条件进行区域分析可以如何支持一项战略，该战略可能导致未来海平面上升条件下的湿地净增加。但是，必须立即采取果断行动。