Nature Medicine ( IF 82.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-13 , DOI: 10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y Robbie M Parks 1, 2, 3, 4 , James E Bennett 1, 2, 5 , Helen Tamura-Wicks 1, 2 , Vasilis Kontis 1, 2 , Ralf Toumi 6 , Goodarz Danaei 7 , Majid Ezzati 1, 2, 5, 8
Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes1. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. In the present study, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980–2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5 °C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement2, would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430–1,776) additional injury deaths. Of these additional deaths, 84% would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously warm temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.
中文翻译:
异常温暖的气温与伤害死亡增加有关
气温偏离当地长期正常水平会影响人类健康,并且预计随着全球气候变化,气温将变得更加频繁1。关于此类异常如何影响受伤死亡的数据有限。在本研究中,我们使用了美国本土 38 年(1980-2017 年)的死亡率和气温数据,并制定了贝叶斯时空模型来量化异常气温(定义为每月气温与当地平均月气温的偏差)在整个分析期间,按年龄组和性别划分,对无意(交通、坠落和溺水)和故意(袭击和自杀)伤害造成的死亡产生影响。我们发现,按照《巴黎气候协议》2的设想,异常温暖年份 1.5 °C 将导致估计 1,601 人(95% 可信区间 1,430-1,776 人)额外受伤死亡。在这些额外死亡中,84% 发生在男性,其中大多数是青春期至中年人。其中包括溺水、交通、袭击和自杀死亡人数的增加,但部分被老年人跌倒死亡人数的下降所抵消。研究结果表明,需要针对异常温暖时期的伤害采取有针对性的干预措施,特别是因为这些事件可能会随着全球气候变化而增加。