Studying the interaction between hydrology, land use and climate change is necessary to support sustainable water resources management. It is unknown how land management interventions in dry climate conditions can benefit water yield in the context of climate and land use change interactions. In this study, we assessed the effects of both land use and climate change on the Mordagh Chay basin water yield using the Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs model (InVEST). First, we modelled the current water yield, followed by developing six combined climate‐land use scenarios until 2030 based on the CCSM4 climate model for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We used three future land use scenarios simulated by the Dyna‐CLUE model. The trend scenario of land use change, which does not include any improvements in irrigation efficiency, significantly affected basin water yield under both climate scenarios. Water yield decreases by 19.8% and 31.8% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Under all land use scenarios that included improvements in irrigation efficiency the water yield responded positively. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the water yield was projected to increase between 16.6 and 18% depending on the land use scenario. The increase in water yield under the RCP8.5 climate scenario was much lower than for the RCP4.5 scenario (about one third). Overall, the results showed that by adopting appropriate irrigation efficiency, it is possible to achieve a better balance between environmental needs, regional economic and agricultural development. The results provide insight into possible sustainable development options and also provide guidance for managing the other Urmia Lake sub‐basins while the approach of integrated assessment of climate, land use change and land management options is also applicable in other conditions to help inform sustainable management.

中文翻译：

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伊朗半干旱盆地未来气候和土地利用变化对产水量的影响

研究水文、土地利用和气候变化之间的相互作用对于支持可持续的水资源管理是必要的。尚不清楚在气候和土地利用变化相互作用的背景下，干旱气候条件下的土地管理干预如何有利于水产量。在本研究中，我们使用综合评估生态系统服务和权衡模型 (InVEST) 评估了土地利用和气候变化对 Mordagh Chay 流域水产量的影响。首先，我们对当前的水产量进行了建模，然后基于针对 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景的 CCSM4 气候模型，开发了 2030 年之前的六种气候-土地利用组合情景。我们使用了 Dyna-CLUE 模型模拟的三个未来土地利用场景。土地利用变化的趋势情景，其中不包括灌溉效率的任何改进，在两种气候情景下都显着影响了流域水产量。RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 的产水量分别降低了 19.8% 和 31.8%。在包括提高灌溉效率在内的所有土地利用情景下，水产量都做出了积极响应。对于 RCP4.5 情景，根据土地使用情景，预计产水量将增加 16.6% 至 18%。RCP8.5 气候情景下的产水量增幅远低于 RCP4.5 情景（约三分之一）。总体而言，结果表明，通过采用适当的灌溉效率，可以在环境需求、区域经济和农业发展之间实现更好的平衡。