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The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.
BMC Infectious Diseases ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-13 , DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-4734-4
Kyeongah Nah 1 , Ákos Bede-Fazekas 2, 3 , Attila János Trájer 4, 5 , Jianhong Wu 1
Affiliation  

BACKGROUND Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle. METHODS Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route. RESULTS The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission. CONCLUSIONS The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.

中文翻译:

气候变化对匈牙利蜱传脑炎传播风险的潜在影响。

背景气候变化对给定地区蜱宿主地方性动物流行周期中蜱传脑炎(TBE)流行的影响取决于该地区特定的气候变化模式如何影响蜱种群发展过程和蜱传脑炎病毒(TBEV)传播涉及系统性传播途径和共同喂养传播途径的动力学。根据预测的气候条件预测地方性动物病周期中 TBEV 的传播风险对于规划公共卫生干预措施(包括疫苗接种计划)至关重要,以减轻居民和旅行者中的 TBE 发病率。我们之前开发并验证了一个数学模型,用于对匈牙利 TBE 流行率的天气波动进行追溯分析,我们的目的是在这项研究中表明,该模型为预测地方性动物周期中 TBEV 传播风险提供了有效的工具。方法 利用已建立的 TBEV 传播模型和匈牙利西部瓦什县 2021-2050 年和 2071-2100 年的气候预测,我们使用一系列总结性指数(基本再生数、传播持续时间)量化 TBEV 传播风险。感染、特定阶段的蜱密度以及由于共同喂养传播而累积的(蜱)感染。我们还通过观察通过非系统性传播途径的新传播的累积数量来衡量共同传播传播的重要性。结果预计2021-2050年和2071-2100年研究地点的传播潜力和风险将随着气温的升高而增加。蜱虫搜寻季节的预期延长以及易感蜱虫(幼虫和若虫)数量的增加以及在同一宿主上共同进食的受感染若虫蜱数量的增加将促进这种增加,从而导致感染复合增加非系统性传播。结论 通过将气候预测与有关特定区域蜱生态和病原体地方动物流行过程的新知识相结合(通过模型参数化拟合历史数据),开发的数学模型为预测蜱宿主地方动物流行周期中的 TBE 流行提供了有效的工具。模型预测,在公认的 TBE 流行地区,TBEV 的共同喂养传播和患病率会增加,因此,除非加强公共卫生干预措施,否则人类感染 TBEV 的风险可能会增加。
更新日期:2020-01-13
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