Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.

中文翻译：

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南部亚马逊州的大火。

极端天气事件和土地使用加剧了野火，威胁将亚马逊从净碳汇变为净碳源。在这里，我们开发并应用了耦合的生态系统火灾模型，以量化温室气体驱动的干燥和变暖将如何影响巴西南部亚马逊南部的野火和相关的CO2排放。区域气候预测表明，在低排放和高排放情景下，亚马逊的火情都会加剧。我们的结果表明，预计的气候变化将使野火燃烧的面积增加一倍，到2050年将影响该地区16％的森林。尽管这些大火可能排放相当于大气的多达17.0 Pg的二氧化碳，但避免新的森林砍伐可减少净火灾排放量减半，并有助于防止火灾逸入保护区和土著土地。