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Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming on rice production across China
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107900 Yijiang Liu , Liang Tang , Xiaolei Qiu , Bing Liu , Xini Chang , Leilei Liu , Xiaohu Zhang , Weixing Cao , Yan Zhu
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107900 Yijiang Liu , Liang Tang , Xiaolei Qiu , Bing Liu , Xini Chang , Leilei Liu , Xiaohu Zhang , Weixing Cao , Yan Zhu
Abstract The primary goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to limit future global warming to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, understanding the impacts of relatively low warming level on rice production is essential to future food security of China. Here, with the latest global warming scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project, we assess the impacts of the two HAPPI scenarios (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming above pre-industrial levels) on rice production for two major rice-cropping systems, including single-season rice and double-season rice (early- and late-season rice). A multi-model ensemble approach (three crop models and four climate models) was used to predict the changes of rice production across the main rice-growing regions of China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Results show that increases in mean rice growing season temperature (GST) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios are highest in central China. Likewise, the increase in GST during the reproductive growth phase (GST-r) is greater than that during the vegetative growth phase (GST-v). The whole rice-growing season duration (GSD-w) is shortened by about 3–15 and 4.5–18 days under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively. Most of the shortening in GSD-w occurs due to a shortening of the vegetative growth phase (GSD-v). Using a stepwise multiple regression procedure, we find that the yield changes of single-season rice and late-season rice are significantly negatively correlated with both GST-r and GSD-v. When examining early-season rice, yield changes are significantly negatively correlated with both GST-v and GSD-r. Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects, the impact of warming has a negative effect across the main rice-growing regions of China. The reduction is greater in the southern area than that in the northern section of the study regions. However, climatic warming has a positive effect on rice yield in low thermal regions of northeast China with CO2 fertilization effects. In other regions, CO2 fertilization will not offset the negative impacts on rice production due to climatic warming. Our results will aid in making the future adaptation strategies to moderate the negative impacts of climate warming on regional rice production across China.
更新日期：2020-04-01
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