In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对具有适应性空间格局形成的生态系统复原力的影响。

在瞬息万变的世界中，量化生态系统的弹性是一项重要的挑战。历史上，弹性是通过不考虑空间影响的模型定义的。这些系统只能通过统一调整来适应。然而，实际上，响应不一定是统一的，并且可能导致形成（自组织的）空间模式-通常是局部的植被斑块。弹性的经典度量无法捕获空间自组织系统中正在出现的动态，包括对生态系统结构和生产力影响有限的模式化国家之间的过渡。我们提出了一个相互关联的相像框架，该相像可以适当地量化图案状态的弹性，这取决于斑块的数量，斑块之间的距离和环境条件。我们展示了经典的弹性概念如何无法区分大的图案过渡和小的图案过渡，并发现插片间距离的变化为即将到来的过渡类型提供了合适的指标。随后，我们根据气候变化的速率描述了生态系统退化的依赖性：缓慢的变化导致零星的，大的过渡，而快速的变化导致较小的过渡的快速序列。最后，我们讨论了抢先删除补丁如何最大程度地减少模式转换期间的生产力损失，从而构成可行的保护策略。我们根据气候变化的速率描述了生态系统退化的依赖性：缓慢的变化导致零星的，大的过渡，而快速的变化导致较小的过渡的快速序列。最后，我们讨论了抢先删除补丁如何最大程度地减少模式转换期间的生产力损失，从而构成可行的保护策略。我们根据气候变化的速率描述了生态系统退化的依赖性：缓慢的变化导致零星的，大的过渡，而快速的变化导致较小的过渡的快速序列。最后，我们讨论了抢先删除补丁如何最大程度地减少模式转换期间的生产力损失，从而构成可行的保护策略。