This paper examines a pathway for small islands to replace fossil fuels by renewable sources, such as wind and solar, up to 100% to economically achieve energy security and satisfy The Paris Agreement to limit temperature rise as close as possible to 1.5 °C, in an economically beneficial manner. Using Jamaica, as an example, it is shown that the introduction of intermittent renewable energy to an island grid, which is electrically isolated, relying totally on itself for backup, causes serious frequency fluctuations and load shedding. Simulations show that a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) using Li-ion batteries can be employed to economically overcome these problems. It is also noted that the cost of batteries with longer discharge capacity is on the decline and their use is expected to be become economical in about 10 years. Looking at the reported pathway to satisfy The Paris Agreement, a 2-phase pathway is suggested. In the Phase 1 (2020–2030) 30% integration of intermittent renewables with BESS backup can be implemented in a manner that is not economically burdensome whilst the remaining fossil fuel system can provide the firm energy needed. In Phase 2 (2030–2055), more renewables can be implemented, provided sufficient long term storage, including batteries, can be added to provide firm energy. By 2030 the cost of such storage is expected to fall resulting in increased deployment without a financial burden to the islands. Ideally, during the period 2020 to 2055, there should be no new additions of fossil fuel plants and retiring plants should be replaced by renewable energy plants; although an account is necessary for plants already in the planning and development stages. The leeway period of 2020–2030 should be used for the preparation and planning of adding up to 100% renewables in all sectors.

本文探讨了小岛通过风能和太阳能等可再生资源替代化石燃料的途径，该途径可高达100％，以经济方式实现能源安全并满足《巴黎协定》的要求，以将温度上升尽可能限制在1.5°C以内。经济上有利的方式。以牙买加为例，表明将间歇性可再生能源引入孤岛电网是电气隔离的，完全依靠自身作为后备电网，这会导致严重的频率波动和甩负荷。仿真表明，使用锂离子电池的电池储能系统（BESS）可以经济地克服这些问题。还应注意的是，具有更长放电容量的电池的成本正在下降，并且预期其使用将在约10年内变得经济。考虑到所报告的满足《巴黎协定》的途径，建议采用两阶段途径。在第一阶段（2020-2030年）中，间歇性可再生能源与BESS备份的30％集成可以在经济上不造成负担的方式进行，而其余的化石燃料系统可以提供所需的稳定能源。在第二阶段（2030-2055年）中，可以增加更多的可再生能源，前提是可以添加足够的长期存储（包括电池）来提供坚固的能源。到2030年，这种存储的成本预计将下降，从而导致部署增加，而不会给岛屿带来经济负担。理想情况下，在2020年至2055年期间，不应再增加化石燃料工厂，而退休工厂应由可再生能源工厂代替；尽管对于已经处于计划和开发阶段的工厂来说，必须有一个帐户。2020-2030年的回旋期应用于准备和规划在所有部门中最多添加100％可再生能源。