The study analyzed changes in surface areas of individual land use types in five administrative regions of Poland in the eastern-most part of the country. Annual time series for the following variables were used: agricultural land, forest land, built-up and urbanized land, and wasteland. The primary objective of the paper was to assess land use changes (LUC) in Eastern Poland in 2002–2016. The paper employed a Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Cox-Stuart (CS) test for monotonic trend and the autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model. The deterministic part was selected with the Akaike criterion. The power of the tests was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation in order to assess their reliability. The results indicate a trend in each of the four series in all the five voivodeships. For forest and built-up land, the trend was upward in each voivodeship. A downward trend was found for the agricultural land and wasteland in all the voivodeships except the Podkarpackie Voivodeship. The results can help regional and local authorities to properly monitor LUC.

该研究分析了波兰最东部的五个行政区域内各个土地使用类型的表面积变化。使用以下变量的年度时间序列：农业用地，林地，已建成和城市化的土地以及荒地。本文的主要目的是评估2002-2016年波兰东部的土地利用变化（LUC）。本文采用了Mann-Kendall（MK）检验和Cox-Stuart（CS）检验来检验单调趋势和自回归移动平均值（ARMA）模型。确定性部分是使用Akaike准则选择的。为了评估测试的可靠性，使用了蒙特卡洛模拟来评估测试的功效。结果表明，在所有五个省中，四个系列中的每个系列都有一个趋势。对于森林和人为的土地，每个省的趋势都是上升的。除Podkarpackie省以外，所有省的农业用地和荒地均呈下降趋势。结果可以帮助区域和地方当局正确监控LUC。