Unanticipated declines among exploited species have commonly occurred despite harvests that appeared sustainable prior to collapse. This is particularly true in the oceans where spatial scales of management are often mismatched with spatially complex metapopulations. We explore causes, consequences, and potential solutions for spatial mismatches in harvested metapopulations in three ways. First, we generate novel theory illustrating when and how harvesting metapopulations increases spatial variability and in turn masks local-scale volatility. Second, we illustrate why spatial variability in harvested metapopulations leads to negative consequences using an empirical example of a Pacific herring metapopulation. Finally, we construct a numerical management strategy evaluation model to identify and highlight potential solutions for mismatches in spatial scale and spatial variability. Our results highlight that spatial complexity can promote stability at large scales, however, ignoring spatial complexity produces cryptic and negative consequences for people and animals that interact with resources at small scales. Harvesting metapopulations magnifies spatial variability, which creates discrepancies between regional and local trends while increasing risk of local population collapses. Such effects asymmetrically impact locally constrained fishers and predators, which are more exposed to risks of localized collapses. Importantly, we show that dynamically optimizing harvest can minimize local risk without sacrificing yield. Thus, multiple nested scales of management may be necessary to avoid cryptic collapses in metapopulations and the ensuing ecological, social, and economic consequences.

中文翻译：

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被开发的种群的空间变异掩盖了崩溃的风险。

尽管收成在崩溃之前是可持续的，但剥削物种中普遍发生了意想不到的下降。在海洋中，管理的空间尺度通常与空间复杂的亚种群不匹配，在海洋中尤其如此。我们以三种方式探索导致收获的种群中空间不匹配的原因，后果和潜在解决方案。首先，我们产生了新颖的理论来说明何时以及如何收获后代种群会增加空间变异性，从而掩盖局部规模的波动性。其次，我们使用太平洋鲱鱼种群的经验例子来说明为什么收获的种群中的空间变异性会导致负面后果。最后，我们构建了一个数字管理策略评估模型，以识别和突出显示空间尺度和空间变异性不匹配的潜在解决方案。我们的结果表明，空间复杂性可以在较大程度上促进稳定性，但是，忽略空间复杂性会对与小规模资源交互作用的人和动物产生神秘的负面影响。收获种群会放大空间变异性，从而在区域趋势和局部趋势之间造成差异，同时增加本地人口崩溃的风险。这种影响非对称地影响了当地受约束的渔民和掠食者，他们更容易遭受局部倒塌的风险。重要的是，我们表明动态优化收获可以在不牺牲产量的情况下将当地风险降至最低。从而，