We propose a controlled simulation within a competitive sum-zero environment as a proxy for disaggregating components of success. Given a simulation of the Risk board game, we consider (a) Talent to be one of three rule-based strategies used by players; (b) Context as the setting of each run of the game with opponents' strategies, goals and luck; and (c) Perspective as the objective of each player. Success is attained when a first player conquers its goal. We simulate 100,000 runs of an agent-based model and analyze the results. The simulation results strongly suggest that luck, talent and context are all relevant to determine success. Perspective -- as the description of the goal that defines success -- is not. As such, we present a quantitative, reproducible environment in which we are able to significantly separate the concepts, reproducing previous results of the literature and adding arguments for context and perspective. Finally, we also find that the simulation offers insights on the relevance of resilience and opportunity.

中文翻译：

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人才、视角、背景和运气对成功的贡献

我们建议在竞争性和零环境中进行受控模拟，作为分解成功要素的代理。鉴于风险棋盘游戏的模拟，我们认为 (a) 人才是玩家使用的三种基于规则的策略之一；(b) 背景作为每场比赛的背景与对手的策略、目标和运气；(c) 视角作为每个玩家的目标。当第一个玩家征服其目标时，即获得成功。我们模拟基于代理的模型的 100,000 次运行并分析结果。模拟结果强烈表明运气、才能和背景都与决定成功有关。视角——作为定义成功的目标的描述——不是。因此，我们提供了一个定量的、可重复的环境，在其中我们能够显着地分离概念，复制以前的文献结果并添加背景和观点的论据。最后，我们还发现模拟提供了关于弹性和机会相关性的见解。