Abstract

Reintroductions of top predators are crucial for restoring ecosystems and are a central tenet of rewilding efforts. In recent years, top predators such as the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) have increased in numbers and expanded into their former range across Europe. A proposal for conducting a trial reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx in England has recently been rejected by the UK government. Lynx could provide ecological benefits; primarily a natural control on deer numbers. Whilst in-depth feasibility studies have been undertaken for Scotland, no detailed assessment of the ecological feasibility of a lynx reintroduction has been produced for the rest of Britain. This study seeks to provide an initial assessment of the ecological feasibility of a reintroduction in southern Scotland, England and Wales by; (1) quantifying the suitable habitat using GIS software, (2) assessing habitat connectivity using GIS-based least cost path (LCP) techniques, (3) quantifying the potential number of lynx that could be supported, using estimated deer densities, and (4) assessing population viability using PVA software. This study identified 11,369 km² of suitable habitat, split across eight habitat networks. This habitat could potentially support an estimated 256 lynx. The largest habitat network (3918 km²) is located in the Southern Uplands of Scotland and Kielder Forest of England, however the second largest habitat network in the Southeast of England could host the largest lynx population (107). Three subpopulations (Southern Uplands and Kielder Forest, Southeast England and Thetford Forest) have extinction probabilities under 10% in at least one of the three PVA scenarios modelled.

中文翻译：

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评估将欧亚山猫（Lynx lynx）重新引入苏格兰南部，英格兰和威尔士的生态可行性

摘要

重新引入顶级掠食者对于恢复生态系统至关重要，也是重新努力的核心原则。近年来，诸如欧亚天猫座（Lynx lynx）的数量有所增加，并在整个欧洲范围内扩展到以前的范围。英国政府最近拒绝了在英格兰进行欧亚山猫试行重新引进的提议。山猫可以提供生态效益；主要是对鹿数量的自然控制。尽管对苏格兰进行了深入的可行性研究，但尚未对英国其他地区的山猫再引入生态可行性进行详细评估。本研究旨在通过以下方式初步评估在苏格兰南部，英格兰和威尔士南部重新引入的生态可行性。（1）使用GIS软件量化合适的栖息地，（2）使用基于GIS的最小成本路径（LCP）技术评估栖息地的连通性，（3）量化可能支持的山猫数量，使用估计的鹿密度，以及（4）使用PVA软件评估种群生存力。这项研究确定了11,369公里²个合适的栖息地，分为8个栖息地网络。这个栖息地可能支持大约256个山猫。最大的栖息地网络（3918 km ²）位于苏格兰的南部高地和英格兰的基尔德森林，但是英格兰东南部第二大的栖息地网络可以容纳最大的山猫种群（107）。在所模拟的三个PVA情景中的至少一个中，三个亚群（南部高地和Kielder森林，东南英格兰和Thetford森林）的灭绝概率低于10％。