Abstract

Rapid response strategies are necessary to effectively manage non-indigenous species. After detection, only few species persist and potentially cause harm. To help prioritize resources, we employed a multispecies, geographically explicit approach, focusing on non-indigenous aquarium fish establishment in the USA. We modeled casual (i.e. temporary) establishment and persistence separately, to identify which species should be prioritized after detection. To facilitate the usability of quantitative models, we converted our results into simple “rules of thumb”, wherein each factor’s contribution represents a multiplier. Finally, from a fundamental perspective, separating casual and persistent establishment improved our understanding of the earlier stages of invasions. We identified five species ranking highest for rapid response, if detected in California, New Mexico and Texas. These states, along with Florida and Hawaii, should take precedence in management funding, being those that currently host more persistent species and where more new establishments are forecasted. Expectedly, the important factors differed considerably between sub-stages, with species traits and propagule pressure being most relevant for casual establishment, and the environment being more predictive of persistence. Notably, propagule pressure had no effect on persistence, suggesting that it would not help target eradication for aquarium fish. Our model allows comparisons for > 1000 species across locations to target rapid responses after detection, and can provide guidance for species not currently traded. Our analysis re-evaluates “risky” species in terms of persistence, suggesting that many species which were flagged in the literature actually pose low risk. Conversely, we identify species that, if detected, warrant rapid response.

中文翻译：

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确定持续性与偶然性建立的风险因素，以便优先考虑对非本土水族馆鱼的快速反应

摘要

快速响应策略对于有效管理非本地物种是必要的。检测后，只有极少数物种持续存在并可能造成伤害。为了帮助确定资源的优先顺序，我们采用了多种物种，在地理位置上明确的方法，重点是在美国建立非本地水族馆鱼类。我们分别对临时（即临时）建立和持久性建模，以识别发现后应优先考虑的物种。为了促进定量模型的可用性，我们将结果转换为简单的“经验法则”，其中每个因素的贡献都代表一个乘数。最后，从根本上看，将临时和持久建立分开将有助于我们更好地理解入侵的早期阶段。我们确定了五个物种的快速响应能力排名最高，如果在加利福尼亚，新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州检测到。这些州以及佛罗里达州和夏威夷州应优先获得管理资金，因为这些州目前拥有更多的持久性物种，并且预计会有更多的新物种建立。可以预料的是，各个子阶段之间的重要因素差异很大，物种特征和繁殖压力与临时建立最为相关，而环境对持久性的预测性更高。值得注意的是，繁殖压力对持久性没有影响，表明这无助于根除水族馆鱼。我们的模型可以对超过1000种物种进行比较，以发现后快速响应为目标，并可以为当前未交易的物种提供指导。我们的分析从持久性的角度重新评估了“风险”物种，这表明文献中标记的许多物种实际上构成了低风险。相反，如果发现，我们将确定需要快速响应的物种。