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Revisiting U.S. country of origin labeling trade damage estimates how does an equilibrium displacement model perform under different scenarios
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-29 , DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12215
William F. Hahn 1 , Sharon S. Sydow 2 , Warren P. Preston 2
Affiliation  

Mexico and Canada successfully challenged the U.S. mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) requirements for beef and pork as inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, which ultimately led to arbitration over the level of trade lost due to the COOL measure. During this phase of the dispute, Mexico, Canada, and the United States provided the Arbitration Panel with estimates of the trade losses caused by COOL that were produced using different quantitative methods. The U.S. estimates were based on an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). This article presents a version of the EDM used by the U.S. Government to calculate trade losses due to COOL. The Panel developed its own analysis combining econometric analysis and an EDM that used only supply‐side information to calculate changes in Canadian and Mexican livestock trade. The U.S. EDM includes both the supply and demand sides of the market. We use the U.S. EDM and the Panel's assumptions to re‐estimate the value of lost trade due to COOL. The inclusion of demand‐side effects and domestic COOL costs produces lower estimated trade damages than those produced using the Panel's analysis, validating the EDM as a useful quantitative tool for this type of trade policy analysis.

中文翻译:

重新审视美国原产国标签贸易损害评估在不同情况下平衡位移模型的表现

墨西哥和加拿大成功挑战了美国对牛肉和猪肉的强制性原产国标签(COOL)要求,因为这与世界贸易组织(WTO)规则不符,最终导致对因COOL措施而造成的贸易损失水平进行仲裁。在争端的这一阶段,墨西哥,加拿大和美国向仲裁小组提供了使用不同数量方法产生的COOL造成的贸易损失的估计。美国的估算基于平衡位移模型(EDM)。本文介绍了美国政府用来计算由于COOL造成的贸易损失的EDM版本。专家小组结合计量经济学分析和EDM进行了自己的分析,该EDM仅使用供应方信息来计算加拿大和墨西哥牲畜贸易的变化。美国 EDM包括市场的供需双方。我们使用美国EDM和评估小组的假设来重新估计由于COOL造成的贸易损失价值。包含需求副作用和国内COOL成本所产生的估计贸易损害要比使用专家小组的分析所产生的损害要低,这证明EDM是此类贸易政策分析的有用定量工具。
更新日期:2019-12-29
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